Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
{name}: tõenäosused reaalajas
Hike–Hike–Hike
- Yes11%
- No89%
Volume $81.3K · Liquidity $48.7K
Hike–Pause–Pause
- Yes20%
- No81%
Volume $63K · Liquidity $46.4K
Hike–Pause–Hike
- Yes62%
- No39%
Volume $55.9K · Liquidity $31K
Hike–Hike–Pause
- Yes4%
- No96%
Volume $42.8K · Liquidity $50.3K
Other
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $20.5K · Liquidity $47.4K
Pause–Pause–Pause
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $15.6K · Liquidity —
Pause–Hike–Pause
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $2.7K · Liquidity —
Pause–Pause–Hike
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $2.1K · Liquidity —
Pause–Hike–Hike
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $2K · Liquidity —
Tulemuse määramise reeglid
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
Kuidas neid tõenäosusi tõlgendada
Iga hind jääb 0 ja 1 USA dollari vahele ning seda võib tõlgendada tõenäosusena, mille turg omistab konkreetsele tulemusele: 0,62 dollarit tähendab ligikaudu 62%. Hinnad muutuvad iga tehinguga, seega kajastavad need turuosaliste ühist hinnangut, mitte garantiid. Enne kauplemist tutvu ülaltoodud tulemuse määramise reeglitega ning kontrolli kauplemismahtu ja likviidsust. Riski ainult rahaga, mille kaotamist saad endale lubada.
Veel turge teemal Majandus

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)
Pause-Hike-Pause: 56%
24h vol $2.8K · Ends 27. jaan 2027

Swiss National Bank decision in December?
No Change: 73%
24h vol $23.8K · Ends 10. dets 2026

Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase: 76%
24h vol $63.6K · Ends 10. dets 2026

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes: 80%
24h vol $11.9K · Ends 10. dets 2026

US recession by end of 2026?
No: 93%
24h vol $5.6K · Ends 31. dets 2026

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.70%: 77%
24h vol $3.6K · Ends 31. dets 2026

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps): 96%
24h vol $26.3K · Ends 1. jaan 2027

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?
5.32%: 59%
24h vol $2.3K · Ends 1. nov 2026

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
Below 5.18%: 59%
24h vol $1.3K · Ends 1. nov 2026

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?
Below 5.55%: 71%
24h vol $1.1K · Ends 1. nov 2026

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in October?
5.70%: 41%
24h vol $824.3 · Ends 1. nov 2026

Fed Decision in October?
No change: 80%
24h vol $1.2M · Ends 29. okt 2026

