Mercados de predicción de Política
Elecciones, legislación y eventos políticos valorados por la multitud.
Datos de Polymarket, actualizados ….
Solo informativo. No es asesoramiento financiero ni de apuestas. Las probabilidades reflejan precios de mercado, no certezas.
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep: 64%
Vol. 24h $2M · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 80%
Vol. 24h $1.3M · Cierra 26 oct 2026
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 52%
Vol. 24h $691.2K · Cierra 28 oct 2026
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin Newsom: 16%
Vol. 24h $568.9K · Cierra 8 nov 2028
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 22: 96%
Vol. 24h $542K · Cierra 31 oct 2026
Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D): 65%
Vol. 24h $519.2K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
Vol. 24h $509.3K · Cierra 26 oct 2026
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party: 92%
Vol. 24h $427.2K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?
220-239: 34%
Vol. 24h $421K · Cierra 23 oct 2026
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance: 20%
Vol. 24h $370.9K · Cierra 8 nov 2028
Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
Vol. 24h $370.5K · Cierra 25 oct 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 19 - October 21, 2026?
40-64: 59%
Vol. 24h $336.3K · Cierra 21 oct 2026
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party: 65%
Vol. 24h $286.6K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 56%
Vol. 24h $283.2K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 46%
Vol. 24h $280.1K · Cierra 19 abr 2027
Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
Oil ≥ $85; D Senate: 60%
Vol. 24h $227.8K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027: 25%
Vol. 24h $197.3K · Cierra 1 jul 2027
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 49%
Vol. 24h $186.7K · Cierra 8 nov 2028
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 2027: 70%
Vol. 24h $170.1K · Cierra 1 jul 2027
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
Vol. 24h $134.7K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Taipei Mayor Election Winner
Chiang Wan-an: 65%
Vol. 24h $133.1K · Cierra 29 nov 2026
Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia: 68%
Vol. 24h $131.6K · Cierra 25 oct 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 85%
Vol. 24h $128.3K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Ohio Governor Election Winner
Amy Acton (D): 79%
Vol. 24h $119.6K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 89%
Vol. 24h $116.1K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31: 4%
Vol. 24h $116K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?
Oil ≥ $80; D Senate: 63%
Vol. 24h $114.8K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 20 - October 27, 2026?
220-239: 17%
Vol. 24h $114.6K · Cierra 27 oct 2026
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá
Flavio Bolsonaro: 71%
Vol. 24h $108.2K · Cierra 26 oct 2026
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
Yashar: 72%
Vol. 24h $101.9K · Cierra 28 oct 2026
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
20-24: 43%
Vol. 24h $97.1K · Cierra 28 oct 2026
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D): 70%
Vol. 24h $92.2K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro: 77%
Vol. 24h $87K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
No Hormuz Agreement: 95%
Vol. 24h $81K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Alaska Senate Election Winner
Mary Peltola: 75%
Vol. 24h $79.7K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
Yes: 80%
Vol. 24h $78.5K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
US imports Russian diesel by...?
December 31: 66%
Vol. 24h $77.7K · Cierra 1 dic 2026
Next leader out of power before 2027?
None before 2027: 46%
Vol. 24h $74.3K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 96%
Vol. 24h $73.2K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
No: 95%
Vol. 24h $69.4K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Trump out as President before 2027?
No: 95%
Vol. 24h $67.3K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei: 86%
Vol. 24h $66.8K · Cierra 31 dic 2026
France declares state of emergency by...?
December 31: 13%
Vol. 24h $64.6K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
South Carolina Senate Election Winner
Darline Graham Nordone (R): 82%
Vol. 24h $56.1K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Iowa Senate Election Winner
Ashley Hinson (R): 58%
Vol. 24h $54.3K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Bulgaria Presidential Election
Iliana Iotova: 89%
Vol. 24h $53.8K · Cierra 26 oct 2026
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 31: 44%
Vol. 24h $53.3K · Cierra 31 dic 2026
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
No Hormuz Agreement: 88%
Vol. 24h $52.7K · Cierra 4 nov 2026