Mercados de predicción de Política
Elecciones, legislación y eventos políticos valorados por la multitud.
Datos de Polymarket, actualizados ….
Solo informativo. No es asesoramiento financiero ni de apuestas. Las probabilidades reflejan precios de mercado, no certezas.
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep: 69%
Vol. 24h $2.3M · Cierra 4 nov 2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 22: 98%
Vol. 24h $1.8M · Cierra 31 oct 2026
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 49%
Vol. 24h $1.7M · Cierra 8 nov 2028
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 78%
Vol. 24h $988.8K · Cierra 26 oct 2026
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 48%
Vol. 24h $976.9K · Cierra 28 oct 2026
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 46%
Vol. 24h $817.8K · Cierra 19 abr 2027
Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?
280-299: 54%
Vol. 24h $803.3K · Cierra 23 oct 2026
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party: 93%
Vol. 24h $722.4K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D): 68%
Vol. 24h $534.8K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
Vol. 24h $428.3K · Cierra 26 oct 2026
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 17%
Vol. 24h $410.7K · Cierra 8 nov 2028
Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia: 71%
Vol. 24h $321K · Cierra 25 oct 2026
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
No: 95%
Vol. 24h $266.7K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Aleksandar Vučić: 72%
Vol. 24h $261.2K · Cierra 26 oct 2026
Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Iotova 10-20%: 66%
Vol. 24h $245.2K · Cierra 25 oct 2026
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party: 69%
Vol. 24h $235.7K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Taipei Mayor Election Winner
Chiang Wan-an: 63%
Vol. 24h $214.7K · Cierra 29 nov 2026
Idaho Senate Election Winner
Jim Risch (R): 96%
Vol. 24h $200.7K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Ohio Governor Election Winner
Amy Acton (D): 82%
Vol. 24h $193.2K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 59%
Vol. 24h $175.6K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
Yashar: 71%
Vol. 24h $172.4K · Cierra 28 oct 2026
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 30%
Vol. 24h $160.1K · Cierra 1 ene 2029
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance: 20%
Vol. 24h $159.2K · Cierra 8 nov 2028
Trump out as President before 2027?
No: 96%
Vol. 24h $152.1K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 84%
Vol. 24h $141.4K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Kansas Senate Election Winner
Roger Marshall (R): 63%
Vol. 24h $138.4K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá
Flavio Bolsonaro: 71%
Vol. 24h $134K · Cierra 26 oct 2026
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D): 71%
Vol. 24h $130.7K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 20 - October 27, 2026?
280-299: 18%
Vol. 24h $127.4K · Cierra 27 oct 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 10%
Vol. 24h $108.6K · Cierra 1 jul 2027
Ohio Senate Election Winner
Sherrod Brown (D): 70%
Vol. 24h $103K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027
Donald Trump: 9%
Vol. 24h $98.5K · Cierra 1 abr 2028
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
Vol. 24h $91.3K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Bulgaria Presidential Election
Iliana Iotova: 88%
Vol. 24h $89.1K · Cierra 26 oct 2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
Yes: 73%
Vol. 24h $88.1K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Nebraska Senate Election Winner
Pete Ricketts (R): 73%
Vol. 24h $86.7K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Next Press Secretary announced by...?
December 31: 59%
Vol. 24h $84.9K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 2027: 72%
Vol. 24h $79.5K · Cierra 1 jul 2027
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 31: 77%
Vol. 24h $74.8K · Cierra 31 dic 2026
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Jared Kushner: 35%
Vol. 24h $73.7K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei: 86%
Vol. 24h $69.9K · Cierra 31 dic 2026
France declares state of emergency by...?
December 31: 19%
Vol. 24h $61K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027: 25%
Vol. 24h $58.5K · Cierra 1 jul 2027
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31: 17%
Vol. 24h $57.7K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31: 4%
Vol. 24h $57.2K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?
Oil ≥ $80; D Senate: 65%
Vol. 24h $57.2K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Texas Governor Election Winner
Greg Abbott (R): 66%
Vol. 24h $56.2K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
VA-05 House Election Winner
John McGuire (R): 63%
Vol. 24h $55.8K · Cierra 4 nov 2026