In short: "leave office" markets price whether a leader resigns, is removed or is impeached before a deadline. They react sharply to scandals, but the useful questions are dull ones: what is the base rate, what exactly counts, and how much time is left?

Step 1: Read the definition

Small wording differences change everything:

  • Announces resignation vs leaves office: a leader can announce and stay for weeks.
  • Impeached (a House vote) vs removed (a Senate conviction).
  • Before a date: the clock matters as much as the event.

Step 2: Start from base rates

Most leaders survive any given month, even in a crisis.

  • UK Prime Ministers have no fixed term and can be replaced by their own party, which has happened several times in recent decades, usually after sustained poor polling or a leadership challenge.
  • US presidents have been impeached by the House only four times in history, and none was removed by the Senate.

A short-dated price that implies a high chance of departure needs a concrete mechanism: a confidence vote scheduled, a leadership contest triggered, a House majority already committed.

Step 3: Map the mechanism

For a UK Prime Minister, ask whether the governing party's rules for a leadership challenge have been met and whether MPs are openly moving. For a US impeachment, count the House: impeachment needs a simple majority, removal needs two-thirds of the Senate. If the votes are not there, a removal market should trade low regardless of headlines.

Step 4: Watch time decay

Every day without the event pushes a fair "before deadline" price down. This time decay favours patient sellers of overhyped outcomes, but one surprise can wipe out many small gains, so position size matters.

Step 5: Separate signal from noise

Scandals produce many headlines but few mechanisms. Look for procedural steps: letters submitted, votes scheduled, resignations from the cabinet. Our guide on news trading covers how markets absorb information.

Risk and availability

These markets can be thin and emotional. Keep positions small, read the resolution source and check whether trading is allowed where you live: the UK is listed as restricted for Polymarket on our country pages.

Next step

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