World Prediction Markets
Geopolitics and global events.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31: 60%
24h vol $1.4M · Ends Jan 3, 2027
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 77%
24h vol $1M · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31: 99%
24h vol $680.3K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $561K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 51%
24h vol $526.3K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
France declares state of emergency by...?
December 31: 17%
24h vol $351.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 24: 93%
24h vol $311K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 11%
24h vol $216.1K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Iotova 10-20%: 57%
24h vol $175.3K · Ends Oct 25, 2026
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 46%
24h vol $170.3K · Ends Apr 19, 2027
Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 31: 45%
24h vol $138.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 95%
24h vol $137.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 31, 2027: 53%
24h vol $131.1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31: 9%
24h vol $89.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Bulgaria Presidential Election
Iliana Iotova: 86%
24h vol $79.5K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 83%
24h vol $78.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $74.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?
December 31: 19%
24h vol $56K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran coup attempt by...?
December 31, 2027: 29%
24h vol $54K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Spain General Election Winner
PP: 76%
24h vol $36.7K · Ends Nov 30, 2026
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
No: 95%
24h vol $34.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
October 28: 86%
24h vol $33.8K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
December 31: 34%
24h vol $31.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 31: 14%
24h vol $31K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027: 92%
24h vol $30.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
No: 97%
24h vol $28.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
December 31, 2027: 41%
24h vol $27.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Specific Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $27.1K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027
Melania Trump: 13%
24h vol $22.8K · Ends Apr 1, 2028
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Vladimir Putin: 84%
24h vol $20.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
June 30, 2027: 9%
24h vol $19.4K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
No: 94%
24h vol $12.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
Person X: 50%
24h vol $11.6K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?
December 31: 3%
24h vol $10.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Bank of Japan Decision in October?
No change: 97%
24h vol $10.3K · Ends Oct 30, 2026
Next Israeli Minister of Justice?
Person W: 50%
24h vol $10K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?
December 31, 2027: 32%
24h vol $9.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
No: 89%
24h vol $9.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
No: 96%
24h vol $7.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Next Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena Andersson: 77%
24h vol $7.5K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?
No: 86%
24h vol $7K · Ends Dec 1, 2026
Next Israeli Minister of Defense?
Person M: 50%
24h vol $6.7K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei: 86%
24h vol $6.6K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government?
Gadi Eizenkot: 57%
24h vol $6.2K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?
Yes: 87%
24h vol $5.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Spain General Election: 2nd Place
PSOE: 76%
24h vol $5.1K · Ends Nov 30, 2026
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
China: 80%
24h vol $4.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?
UAE: 66%
24h vol $4.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2028