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Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?

Markets

  • March 31, 2026

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $325.9K · Liquidity —

  • June 30

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $172.9K · Liquidity —

  • December 31

    • Yes12%
    • No89%

    Volume $120.7K · Liquidity $19.5K

  • October 31

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $100.2K · Liquidity —

  • December 31

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $50.7K · Liquidity —

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 5, 9:00 PM ET, and May 13, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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