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Will any country leave NATO by...?

Markets

  • June 30, 2026

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $741.1K · Liquidity $0

  • December 31, 2026

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $403.8K · Liquidity $17.5K

  • December 31, 2025

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $277K · Liquidity —

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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