World Prediction Markets
Geopolitics and global events.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 86%
24h vol $785.7K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 10%
24h vol $418.4K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 43%
24h vol $414.5K · Ends Apr 19, 2027
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 15: 98%
24h vol $385.8K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $254.5K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 83%
24h vol $171.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 48%
24h vol $107.7K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31: 8%
24h vol $75.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $71.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
December 31: 37%
24h vol $63.4K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31: 27%
24h vol $62.7K · Ends Jan 3, 2027
Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
October 14: 100%
24h vol $39.2K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
December 31: 35%
24h vol $26.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
October 4: 88%
24h vol $26.5K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
October 11: 96%
24h vol $26.3K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 31: 10%
24h vol $25K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 95%
24h vol $23.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
No: 97%
24h vol $23.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?
December 31: 26%
24h vol $22.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
NATO article 5 before 2027?
No: 95%
24h vol $15.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei: 87%
24h vol $14.7K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 31: 20%
24h vol $14.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31: 78%
24h vol $13.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 31: 14%
24h vol $12.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Bulgaria Presidential Election
Iliana Iotova: 87%
24h vol $12.6K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
No: 95%
24h vol $12.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner
Kuomintang (KMT): 79%
24h vol $12.3K · Ends Nov 29, 2026
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 31: 17%
24h vol $12K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
June 30, 2027: 9%
24h vol $9.9K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
French Presidential Election First Round Winner
Marine Le Pen: 88%
24h vol $9.6K · Ends Apr 18, 2027
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
No: 95%
24h vol $9.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
No: 95%
24h vol $8.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Next Israeli Minister of Defense?
Person P: 50%
24h vol $8K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Venezuela: 18%
24h vol $7.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 31: 28%
24h vol $6.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?
No: 99%
24h vol $6.6K · Ends Oct 16, 2026
Will Iran target an Arab country by...?
October 31: 87%
24h vol $6.4K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?
December 31: 90%
24h vol $6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Netanyahu out by...?
No: 61%
24h vol $6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Vladimir Putin: 81%
24h vol $5.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Iran target Iraq by...?
October 15: 84%
24h vol $5.7K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
No change: 82%
24h vol $5.6K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
China: 77%
24h vol $5.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Yoon out of custody before 2027?
No: 95%
24h vol $5.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
December 31, 2027: 49%
24h vol $5.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
French Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Candidate T: 50%
24h vol $5.1K · Ends Apr 18, 2027
Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory
Remain 40–60%: 61%
24h vol $4.5K · Ends Oct 20, 2026
Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
Person Z: 50%
24h vol $4.3K · Ends Mar 1, 2027