Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?
Markets
October 15
- Yes56%
- No45%
Volume $46.2K · Liquidity $303
October 3
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $2.3K · Liquidity —
October 5
- Yes96%
- No4%
Volume $1.8K · Liquidity $552
October 2
- Yes34%
- No66%
Volume $1.8K · Liquidity $75.6
October 1
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $1.7K · Liquidity —
October 7
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $1.3K · Liquidity —
October 6
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $1.2K · Liquidity —
October 8
- Yes97%
- No3%
Volume $1.1K · Liquidity $598.2
October 10
- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $1K · Liquidity $2.1K
October 4
- Yes51%
- No50%
Volume $913.4 · Liquidity $112
October 9
- Yes42%
- No58%
Volume $743.6 · Liquidity $9.7
October 25
- Yes11%
- No90%
Volume $256.2 · Liquidity $815.1
October 12
- Yes70%
- No30%
Volume $234.7 · Liquidity $149.9
October 13
- Yes62%
- No39%
Volume $162.5 · Liquidity $229.6
October 11
- Yes64%
- No37%
Volume $159.4 · Liquidity $88.9
October 14
- Yes60%
- No41%
Volume $159.3 · Liquidity $140.5
October 26
- Yes47%
- No54%
Volume $116.2 · Liquidity $109.5
October 22
- Yes46%
- No54%
Volume $99.4 · Liquidity $118
October 30
- Yes46%
- No55%
Volume $84.7 · Liquidity $116.7
October 17
- Yes36%
- No64%
Volume $73.9 · Liquidity $153.1
October 31
- Yes48%
- No52%
Volume $70 · Liquidity $103.5
October 28
- Yes47%
- No54%
Volume $65.6 · Liquidity $101.3
October 27
- Yes46%
- No55%
Volume $64.8 · Liquidity $112.2
October 29
- Yes46%
- No55%
Volume $63.1 · Liquidity $111.9
October 19
- Yes53%
- No48%
Volume $63.1 · Liquidity $139.7
October 21
- Yes49%
- No52%
Volume $50 · Liquidity $94.5
October 16
- Yes56%
- No45%
Volume $30 · Liquidity $139.6
October 20
- Yes49%
- No51%
Volume $30 · Liquidity $106.9
October 18
- Yes56%
- No44%
Volume — · Liquidity $155.3
October 23
- Yes51%
- No50%
Volume — · Liquidity $87.4
October 24
- Yes51%
- No50%
Volume — · Liquidity $87.6
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Saudi Arabia on the specified date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Saudi Arabia. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Saudi Arabia do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Saudi Arabia” refers to the terrestrial territory of Saudi Arabia, including its internal waters. Saudi Arabia’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Saudi Arabia as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and military of Saudi Arabia and the Houthis and a consensus of credible reporting.
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
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