World Prediction Markets
Geopolitics and global events.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 76%
24h vol $1.9M · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 46%
24h vol $988.3K · Ends Apr 19, 2027
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 18: 96%
24h vol $688.1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $301K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 85%
24h vol $296.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 48%
24h vol $250.9K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
December 31: 31%
24h vol $84.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $79.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
No: 97%
24h vol $70.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 31: 13%
24h vol $63.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?
March 31, 2027: 24%
24h vol $62K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31: 8%
24h vol $43.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Israel military action against Syria by...?
November 30: 30%
24h vol $36.3K · Ends Nov 30, 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 10%
24h vol $30.7K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31: 74%
24h vol $27K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
China: 71%
24h vol $24.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 31: 33%
24h vol $23.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
December 31: 30%
24h vol $23.6K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31: 24%
24h vol $23.1K · Ends Jan 3, 2027
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
June 30, 2027: 9%
24h vol $19.4K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
No: 96%
24h vol $19.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 31: 20%
24h vol $16.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 31: 10%
24h vol $15.4K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
December 31, 2027: 40%
24h vol $14.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
No change: 85%
24h vol $14.8K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
October 17: 91%
24h vol $14K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Bulgaria Presidential Election
Iliana Iotova: 88%
24h vol $13.4K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
No: 91%
24h vol $12.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?
December 31: 33%
24h vol $12.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?
October 18: 79%
24h vol $10.9K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei: 87%
24h vol $10.6K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Next Israeli Minister of National Security?
Person Z: 50%
24h vol $10.1K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $9.6K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Yes: 83%
24h vol $9.1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?
March 31, 2027: 63%
24h vol $8.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Next Israeli Minister of Defense?
Person M: 50%
24h vol $8.7K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?
No: 96%
24h vol $7.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
French Presidential Election First Round Winner
Marine Le Pen: 86%
24h vol $7.3K · Ends Apr 18, 2027
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
No: 97%
24h vol $6.5K · Ends Oct 20, 2026
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 95%
24h vol $6.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
No: 97%
24h vol $6.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
Person K: 50%
24h vol $5.9K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Mohammed bin Salman: 79%
24h vol $5.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
No: 93%
24h vol $4.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Spain General Election Winner
PP: 85%
24h vol $4.1K · Ends Nov 30, 2026
Iran Nuke before 2027?
No: 96%
24h vol $3.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
No: 95%
24h vol $3.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Israel Election: Together # of seats?
14-16: 32%
24h vol $3.1K · Ends Oct 27, 2026