Tech Prediction Markets
AI, product launches and big-tech milestones.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
Google: 71%
24h vol $176.5K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
Largest Company end of October 2026?
NVIDIA: 85%
24h vol $91.4K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
AI bubble burst by...?
June 30, 2027: 19%
24h vol $44.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
December 31, 2027: 62%
24h vol $40.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
October 20: 31%
24h vol $29.5K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
December 31: 98%
24h vol $28.5K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?
December 31: 92%
24h vol $18.5K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 27%
24h vol $18K · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Anthropic: 49%
24h vol $15.2K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 28%
24h vol $13.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Which company has the best AI model end of November?
Company J: 50%
24h vol $12.1K · Ends Dec 1, 2026
Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIA: 68%
24h vol $11.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
0: 77%
24h vol $10.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?
Apple: 81%
24h vol $9.6K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?
Saudi Arabia: 22%
24h vol $9.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut?
1500+: 92%
24h vol $8.4K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?
1400+: 93%
24h vol $7.4K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
Xiaomi: 57%
24h vol $6.7K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
CoreWeave announces bankruptcy by...?
December 31, 2029: 28%
24h vol $6.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2030
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
No: 92%
24h vol $5.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?
12-15: 77%
24h vol $5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?
December 31, 2029: 24%
24h vol $4.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2030
#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?
Muse from Meta: 69%
24h vol $4.1K · Ends Oct 23, 2026
Will Claude go down on __ days in October?
<5: 42%
24h vol $3.8K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
OpenAI resumes training on...?
Not resumed by October 20: 96%
24h vol $3.4K · Ends Oct 21, 2026
Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
No solution by Dec 31, 2027: 34%
24h vol $3.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
OpenRouter AI token usage Sep 28 to Oct 25?
625-675T: 55%
24h vol $2.9K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
#3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 12?
OpenAI: 100%
24h vol $2.8K · Ends Oct 20, 2026
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
45%+: 25%
24h vol $2.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?
Anthropic: 90%
24h vol $2.4K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
December 31, 2027: 62%
24h vol $2.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by...?
December 31: 100%
24h vol $2.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Top 5 Most Searched TV Shows on Google 2026
A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms: 87%
24h vol $2K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
#1 Searched Movie on Google 2026?
Movie W: 50%
24h vol $2K · Ends Apr 1, 2027
Longest GitHub critical incident in October?
3-6 hours: 57%
24h vol $1.9K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
#2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 12?
Google: 100%
24h vol $1.7K · Ends Oct 20, 2026
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in October 2026?
5+: 77%
24h vol $1.7K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
#1 Searched Person on Google 2026?
Person 8: 50%
24h vol $1.5K · Ends Apr 1, 2027
Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
45%+: 53%
24h vol $1.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
#3 AI Lab end of December? (Style Control On)
Company L: 50%
24h vol $1.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
No release by November 1: 90%
24h vol $1.5K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?
Anthropic: 87%
24h vol $1.4K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
Which cities will Waymo launch in by December 31?
Denver, CO: 94%
24h vol $1.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
Company I: 50%
24h vol $1.4K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?
November 30, 2026: 78%
24h vol $1.4K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 25%
24h vol $1.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Claude Fable 5.2+: Output Token Price Debut?
$40+: 98%
24h vol $1.3K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?
Reserved app 2: 50%
24h vol $1.3K · Ends Oct 23, 2026