Politics Prediction Markets
Elections, legislation and political events priced by the crowd.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 81%
24h vol $1.8M · Ends Oct 26, 2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 18: 99%
24h vol $982.4K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 52%
24h vol $655.7K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 48%
24h vol $598.4K · Ends Apr 19, 2027
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $404.8K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep: 63%
24h vol $303.8K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?
340-359: 32%
24h vol $285.2K · Ends Oct 20, 2026
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance: 20%
24h vol $257.1K · Ends Nov 8, 2028
Elon Musk # tweets October 17 - October 19, 2026?
65-89: 48%
24h vol $197.9K · Ends Oct 19, 2026
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 96%
24h vol $191K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 86%
24h vol $140.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?
260-279: 20%
24h vol $137K · Ends Oct 23, 2026
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party: 65%
24h vol $136.6K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31: 5%
24h vol $134.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia: 69%
24h vol $114.2K · Ends Oct 25, 2026
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party: 91%
24h vol $114.1K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Next Press Secretary announced by...?
December 31: 81%
24h vol $111K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
No: 99%
24h vol $100.5K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 49%
24h vol $97.6K · Ends Nov 8, 2028
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin Newsom: 15%
24h vol $95.3K · Ends Nov 8, 2028
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31: 18%
24h vol $92.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D): 70%
24h vol $80.9K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $80.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 57%
24h vol $78.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
Yes: 79%
24h vol $72.1K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra: 96%
24h vol $67.6K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro: 72%
24h vol $55.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $52.9K · Ends Oct 25, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 88%
24h vol $50K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
No: 92%
24h vol $45.1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
Yashar: 68%
24h vol $43.7K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Nevada Governor Election Winner
Aaron Ford (D): 57%
24h vol $41.5K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D): 63%
24h vol $41.1K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 10%
24h vol $38.1K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Trump out as President before 2027?
No: 96%
24h vol $33.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
NC-11 House Election Winner
Jamie Ager (D): 79%
24h vol $32K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 2027: 69%
24h vol $30.4K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?
No: 99%
24h vol $30K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Nebraska Senate Election Winner
Pete Ricketts (R): 72%
24h vol $27.4K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
TX-06 House Election Winner
Jake Ellzey (R): 99%
24h vol $27.3K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Luca Niculescu: 96%
24h vol $27.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
No Hormuz Agreement: 91%
24h vol $27K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Bulgaria Presidential Election
Iliana Iotova: 88%
24h vol $26.6K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Next Press Secretary?
Candidate CB: 50%
24h vol $25.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Elon Musk # tweets October 20 - October 27, 2026?
280-299: 10%
24h vol $25.5K · Ends Oct 27, 2026
Will Ilhan Omar be deported by...?
June 30, 2027: 6%
24h vol $25.3K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory
Remain 40–60%: 68%
24h vol $24.9K · Ends Oct 20, 2026
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
June 30, 2027: 9%
24h vol $24.2K · Ends Jul 1, 2027