Politics Prediction Markets
Elections, legislation and political events priced by the crowd.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 79%
24h vol $2.3M · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?
340-359: 49%
24h vol $1.1M · Ends Oct 16, 2026
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 47%
24h vol $848.3K · Ends Apr 19, 2027
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 16: 99%
24h vol $659.2K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep: 63%
24h vol $536K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
No Hormuz Agreement: 94%
24h vol $475.6K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party: 91%
24h vol $450.6K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 59%
24h vol $442.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance: 21%
24h vol $386.9K · Ends Nov 8, 2028
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 49%
24h vol $376.3K · Ends Nov 8, 2028
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $365.8K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 17%
24h vol $346.6K · Ends Nov 8, 2028
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
No: 100%
24h vol $281.4K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 49%
24h vol $280.5K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 84%
24h vol $231.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?
340-359: 17%
24h vol $211.5K · Ends Oct 20, 2026
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party: 65%
24h vol $203.9K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?
Oil ≥ $80; D Senate: 60%
24h vol $189.6K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027: 24%
24h vol $146.2K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
No Hormuz Agreement: 97%
24h vol $139.4K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
Yashar: 62%
24h vol $135.6K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D): 63%
24h vol $114.3K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31: 4%
24h vol $108.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?
October 18: 99%
24h vol $108.5K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
Alaska Senate Election Winner
Mary Peltola: 74%
24h vol $102.1K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?
December 31: 37%
24h vol $91.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Trump out as President before 2027?
No: 96%
24h vol $83.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $78.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 89%
24h vol $76.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Argentina Presidential Election Winner
Javier Milei: 47%
24h vol $70K · Ends Oct 25, 2027
Elon Musk # tweets October 15 - October 17, 2026?
90-114: 47%
24h vol $64.5K · Ends Oct 17, 2026
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 31: 6%
24h vol $62.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Luca Niculescu: 92%
24h vol $59.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 31: 41%
24h vol $55.5K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro: 71%
24h vol $52.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 2027: 69%
24h vol $52.5K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
Oil ≥ $85; D Senate: 51%
24h vol $44.7K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Houthis enter Aden by...?
December 31: 26%
24h vol $44.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo
Candidate AA: 50%
24h vol $44.1K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
Yes: 77%
24h vol $41.8K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
No: 91%
24h vol $39.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
No: 96%
24h vol $39.1K · Ends Dec 1, 2026
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 95%
24h vol $38.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 31: 5%
24h vol $37.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D): 70%
24h vol $37K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.7%: 27%
24h vol $35.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?
240-259: 11%
24h vol $35.1K · Ends Oct 23, 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 11%
24h vol $34.4K · Ends Jul 1, 2027