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US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

Markets

  • May 31

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $20.5M · Liquidity —

  • June 30

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $4.5M · Liquidity —

  • December 31

    • Yes6%
    • No95%

    Volume $2.4M · Liquidity $115.3K

  • April 30

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $1.2M · Liquidity —

  • July 31

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $655.5K · Liquidity —

  • September 30

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $192.3K · Liquidity $0

  • August 31

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $65.8K · Liquidity —

  • July 31

    • Yes—
    • No—

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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