Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
Markets
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
- Yes98%
- No2%
Volume $592K · Liquidity $92.8K
Flavio Bolsonaro
- Yes99%
- No1%
Volume $152.7K · Liquidity $105.7K
Tarcisio de Frietas
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $91.6K · Liquidity $99.5K
Fernando Haddad
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $68.8K · Liquidity $86.2K
Renan Santos
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $47.5K · Liquidity $141.2K
Michelle Bolsonaro
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $43.7K · Liquidity $80.8K
Jair Bolsonaro
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $20.6K · Liquidity $92.8K
Ronaldo Caiado
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $3.3K · Liquidity $143K
Romeu Zema
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $3.3K · Liquidity $54.1K
Resolution rules
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g.,
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
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