Politics Prediction Markets
Elections, legislation and political events priced by the crowd.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party: 92%
24h vol $2.1M · Ends Nov 4, 2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 24: 99%
24h vol $1.6M · Ends Oct 31, 2026
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 56%
24h vol $1.5M · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep: 65%
24h vol $939.3K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
Yashar: 73%
24h vol $909.6K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Person X: 50%
24h vol $892.4K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance: 20%
24h vol $768.5K · Ends Nov 8, 2028
Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Iotova <10%: 100%
24h vol $705.5K · Ends Oct 25, 2026
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 49%
24h vol $565.4K · Ends Nov 8, 2028
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31: 4%
24h vol $436.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 44%
24h vol $433.8K · Ends Apr 19, 2027
Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D): 65%
24h vol $317.2K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Bulgaria Presidential Election
Iliana Iotova: 67%
24h vol $311.2K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 20 - October 27, 2026?
320-339: 41%
24h vol $291.7K · Ends Oct 27, 2026
France declares state of emergency by...?
December 31: 15%
24h vol $262.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
No: 76%
24h vol $248.2K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 24 - October 26, 2026?
65-89: 83%
24h vol $232.9K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?
October 31: 99%
24h vol $230.3K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party: 65%
24h vol $210.3K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 59%
24h vol $208.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $206.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Serbia Parliamentary Election: Turnout
66-70%: 92%
24h vol $190.9K · Ends Oct 25, 2026
Fall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate
Candidate S: 50%
24h vol $146.7K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 82%
24h vol $144.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
NC-13 House Election Winner
Brad Knott (R): 66%
24h vol $140K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro: 76%
24h vol $137K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
20-24: 42%
24h vol $134.9K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round Winner
Iliana Iotova: 100%
24h vol $129.6K · Ends Oct 25, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 89%
24h vol $123.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D): 68%
24h vol $111.9K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra: 97%
24h vol $111.4K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Toronto Mayoral Election Winner
Olivia Chow: 85%
24h vol $110.9K · Ends Oct 27, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
No: 100%
24h vol $110.8K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Ohio Senate Election Winner
Sherrod Brown (D): 69%
24h vol $109.3K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Los Angeles Mayoral Election
Nithya Raman: 54%
24h vol $107.9K · Ends Jun 3, 2026
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 17%
24h vol $107.4K · Ends Nov 8, 2028
Taipei Mayor Election Winner
Chiang Wan-an: 63%
24h vol $100.2K · Ends Nov 29, 2026
Texas Governor Election Winner
Greg Abbott (R): 65%
24h vol $87.8K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 23 - October 30, 2026?
300-319: 20%
24h vol $87.2K · Ends Oct 30, 2026
Ohio Governor Election Winner
Amy Acton (D): 83%
24h vol $81.1K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Next Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena Andersson: 73%
24h vol $79.5K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?
No: 74%
24h vol $75.9K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?
November 30: 57%
24h vol $74.7K · Ends Nov 30, 2026
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤47: 41%
24h vol $69.9K · Ends Nov 3, 2026
NC-09 House Election Winner
Richard Hudson (R): 68%
24h vol $65.1K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 31: 77%
24h vol $63.4K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
Yes: 82%
24h vol $59.1K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 10%
24h vol $59.1K · Ends Jul 1, 2027