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Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

Markets

  • December 31, 2026

    • Yes6%
    • No95%

    Volume $2.3M · Liquidity $108.4K

  • September 30, 2026

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $392.4K · Liquidity —

  • October 31, 2026

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $146.1K · Liquidity $52.1K

  • November 30, 2026

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $12.5K · Liquidity $50.6K

  • December 31, 2027

    • Yes46%
    • No55%

    Volume $2.9K · Liquidity $35.1K

  • June 30, 2027

    • Yes33%
    • No67%

    Volume $2.5K · Liquidity $35.9K

  • March 31, 2027

    • Yes20%
    • No81%

    Volume $1.7K · Liquidity $19K

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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