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Closest Governor's Race?

Markets

  • Ohio

    • Yes18%
    • No82%

    Volume $953.9 · Liquidity $15.4K

  • Nevada

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $807.1 · Liquidity $824.1

  • Georgia

    • Yes25%
    • No75%

    Volume $286.2 · Liquidity $12.6K

  • Oregon

    • Yes12%
    • No88%

    Volume $209.7 · Liquidity $672.4

  • Alaska

    • Yes12%
    • No88%

    Volume $177.4 · Liquidity $689.6

  • Florida

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $160.4 · Liquidity $714.1

  • Kansas

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $159.4 · Liquidity $708.3

  • Iowa

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $148.3 · Liquidity $697.3

  • Wisconsin

    • Yes9%
    • No91%

    Volume $139.4 · Liquidity $681.2

  • Hawaii

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $124.4 · Liquidity $663.1

  • Minnesota

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $119.4 · Liquidity $733.1

  • Vermont

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $119.4 · Liquidity $702.9

  • Maine

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $119.4 · Liquidity $660.1

  • Michigan

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $119.4 · Liquidity $661.6

  • Nebraska

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $119.4 · Liquidity $706.2

  • Oklahoma

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $119.4 · Liquidity $694.3

  • Pennsylvania

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $119.4 · Liquidity $690.2

  • Rhode Island

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $119.4 · Liquidity $702.3

  • South Carolina

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $119.4 · Liquidity $704.4

  • South Dakota

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $119.4 · Liquidity $681.4

  • Tennessee

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $119.4 · Liquidity $700.3

  • Wyoming

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $119.4 · Liquidity $673.1

  • Arkansas

    • Yes8%
    • No92%

    Volume $119.4 · Liquidity $687.2

  • California

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $119.4 · Liquidity $659.5

  • Idaho

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $119.4 · Liquidity $675

  • Illinois

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $119.4 · Liquidity $677.6

  • Maryland

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $119.4 · Liquidity $728.7

  • Massachusetts

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $119.4 · Liquidity $705.5

  • Texas

    • Yes20%
    • No80%

    Volume $115.3 · Liquidity $12.8K

  • New Hampshire

    • Yes7%
    • No94%

    Volume $106.8 · Liquidity $13.1K

  • New Mexico

    • Yes7%
    • No94%

    Volume $104.7 · Liquidity $662.8

  • Arizona

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $103.8 · Liquidity $13K

  • Colorado

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $86 · Liquidity $10.5K

  • New York

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $58 · Liquidity $10.6K

  • Alabama

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $20 · Liquidity $10.7K

  • Connecticut

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $20 · Liquidity $10.7K

  • State A

    • Yes50%
    • No50%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • State B

    • Yes50%
    • No50%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • State C

    • Yes50%
    • No50%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • State D

    • Yes50%
    • No50%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • State E

    • Yes50%
    • No50%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US State gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider all regular and special gubernatorial elections that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. For the purposes of this market, US State is defined to exclude territories, the District of Columbia, and any other subdivision that is not a state. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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