Economy Prediction Markets
Interest rates, inflation, jobs data and macro events.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Fed Decision in October?
No change: 95%
24h vol $2.1M · Ends Oct 29, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 89%
24h vol $95.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?
↑ $105: 67%
24h vol $71K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
$1.75–$2.0T: 28%
24h vol $70.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase: 77%
24h vol $68K · Ends Dec 10, 2026
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
↑$1.5T: 86%
24h vol $29.5K · Ends Jan 5, 2027
Anthropic IPO by __?
December 31, 2026: 73%
24h vol $29.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.70%: 72%
24h vol $26.2K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIA: 61%
24h vol $17.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Hike–Pause–Hike: 74%
24h vol $16.5K · Ends Dec 9, 2026
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
4.80%: 100%
24h vol $16.4K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Largest Company end of October 2026?
NVIDIA: 69%
24h vol $12K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps): 97%
24h vol $11.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Fed Decision in January?
No change: 68%
24h vol $10.7K · Ends Jan 28, 2027
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes: 77%
24h vol $9K · Ends Dec 10, 2026
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.3%: 47%
24h vol $9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US economic state at the end of 2026?
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%): 99%
24h vol $8.6K · Ends Feb 1, 2027
Bank of Brazil decision in November?
25 bps decrease: 82%
24h vol $8K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?
Apple: 69%
24h vol $6.1K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Bank of Canada Decision in October?
25 bps increase: 82%
24h vol $4.9K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
October Inflation China - Annual
0.7% to 0.8%: 45%
24h vol $4.9K · Ends Nov 9, 2026
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 5.25%: 77%
24h vol $4.8K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Fed rate cut by...?
July 2027 Meeting: 50%
24h vol $4.1K · Ends Jan 29, 2028
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.9%: 82%
24h vol $4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Brazil Annual Inflation 2026
5.00-5.49%: 58%
24h vol $3.9K · Ends Jan 13, 2027
US recession by end of 2026?
No: 93%
24h vol $3.3K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q4 2026?
4.3-4.6%: 50%
24h vol $3.2K · Ends Feb 1, 2027
ISM Services PMI - October 2026
53.0 to 53.9: 26%
24h vol $2.7K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
How high will 2-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
4.75%: 83%
24h vol $2.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
USD x Iranian rials End of October?
2.8M+: 35%
24h vol $2.2K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?
30M+: 96%
24h vol $2.1K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.40%: 83%
24h vol $2.1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026
2.0-2.4%: 70%
24h vol $2K · Ends Apr 1, 2027
What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?
$407K - $411K: 43%
24h vol $1.9K · Ends Jan 11, 2027
How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.60%: 60%
24h vol $1.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
4.0–5.0%: 96%
24h vol $1.9K · Ends Feb 1, 2027
Bank of Japan Decision in October?
No change: 97%
24h vol $1.8K · Ends Oct 30, 2026
Bank of Mexico Decision in November?
No change: 74%
24h vol $1.8K · Ends Nov 5, 2026
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
25 bps increase: 68%
24h vol $1.8K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Bank of Russia decision in December?
No change: 72%
24h vol $1.7K · Ends Dec 18, 2026
Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM)
0.2 to 0.3%: 41%
24h vol $1.6K · Ends Oct 30, 2026
South Africa Annual Inflation 2026
>5.0%: 78%
24h vol $1.5K · Ends Jan 21, 2027
October Inflation US - Annual
3.7%: 88%
24h vol $1.5K · Ends Nov 11, 2026
Price of Dozen Eggs in October?
$2.20 to $2.30: 55%
24h vol $1.5K · Ends Nov 11, 2026
Bank of Canada Decision in December?
25 bps increase: 52%
24h vol $1.4K · Ends Dec 9, 2026
Bank of Japan Decision in December?
25 bps increase: 82%
24h vol $1.2K · Ends Dec 18, 2026
UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?
0.6–0.7%: 54%
24h vol $1.2K · Ends Nov 13, 2026
Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?
↑ 7.50%: 60%
24h vol $1.2K · Ends Jan 15, 2027