Economy Prediction Markets
Interest rates, inflation, jobs data and macro events.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Fed Decision in October?
No change: 96%
24h vol $1.6M · Ends Oct 29, 2026
Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase: 77%
24h vol $122.3K · Ends Dec 10, 2026
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?
↑ $105: 71%
24h vol $118.9K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps): 97%
24h vol $72.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 89%
24h vol $58.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
$1.75–$2.0T: 28%
24h vol $47K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
<$1T: 26%
24h vol $29.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.70%: 72%
24h vol $29.2K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Anthropic IPO by __?
December 31, 2026: 77%
24h vol $27.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Hike–Pause–Hike: 75%
24h vol $25.8K · Ends Dec 9, 2026
Largest Company end of October 2026?
NVIDIA: 63%
24h vol $21.4K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIA: 60%
24h vol $21.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
↑$1.5T: 94%
24h vol $20.8K · Ends Jan 5, 2027
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes: 77%
24h vol $18.4K · Ends Dec 10, 2026
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
SpaceX: 64%
24h vol $16.1K · Ends Jan 2, 2027
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
4.80%: 100%
24h vol $14K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Fed Decision in January?
No change: 68%
24h vol $12.8K · Ends Jan 28, 2027
Bank of Brazil decision in November?
25 bps decrease: 80%
24h vol $9.8K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 5.25%: 77%
24h vol $9K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Crude Oil all time high by...?
March 31, 2027: 26%
24h vol $8.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Bank of Canada Decision in October?
25 bps increase: 82%
24h vol $6K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.3%: 41%
24h vol $5.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Central Bank of Colombia decision in October
No change: 54%
24h vol $4.7K · Ends Oct 30, 2026
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December
No change: 61%
24h vol $4.3K · Ends Dec 8, 2026
October Inflation China - Annual
0.7% to 0.8%: 45%
24h vol $4.3K · Ends Nov 9, 2026
US recession by end of 2026?
No: 92%
24h vol $3.9K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Brazil Annual Inflation 2026
5.00-5.49%: 57%
24h vol $3.9K · Ends Jan 13, 2027
USD x Iranian rials End of October?
2.6-2.7M: 41%
24h vol $2.9K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
US economic state at the end of 2026?
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%): 94%
24h vol $2.9K · Ends Feb 1, 2027
Gas prices on October 25?
$4.2800-4.2899: 99%
24h vol $2.9K · Ends Oct 25, 2026
How high will 2-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
4.75%: 80%
24h vol $2.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q4 2026?
4.3-4.6%: 49%
24h vol $2.3K · Ends Feb 1, 2027
Bank of Russia decision in December?
No change: 70%
24h vol $2.3K · Ends Dec 18, 2026
Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?
$900B-$1.00T: 48%
24h vol $2.3K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Swiss National Bank decision in December?
No Change: 82%
24h vol $2.2K · Ends Dec 10, 2026
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.40%: 80%
24h vol $1.8K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Fed rate cut by...?
July 2027 Meeting: 50%
24h vol $1.8K · Ends Jan 29, 2028
How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.60%: 72%
24h vol $1.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?
November 30: 23%
24h vol $1.7K · Ends Dec 1, 2026
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
25 bps increase: 68%
24h vol $1.6K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Bank of Japan Decision in December?
25 bps increase: 80%
24h vol $1.6K · Ends Dec 18, 2026
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
↑ 4.25%: 74%
24h vol $1.5K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Bank of Japan Decision in October?
No change: 97%
24h vol $1.4K · Ends Oct 30, 2026
Oracle downgraded to junk by Moody's or S&P by...?
June 30, 2027: 32%
24h vol $1.4K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Bank of Mexico Decision in November?
No change: 83%
24h vol $1.3K · Ends Nov 5, 2026
Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?
3.0-3.5%: 37%
24h vol $1.3K · Ends Oct 30, 2026
Core CPI YoY - October 2026
2.6%: 94%
24h vol $1.2K · Ends Nov 11, 2026
EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?
30M+: 96%
24h vol $1.1K · Ends Nov 1, 2026