Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?
Markets
November 30
- Yes66%
- No35%
Volume $1.6K · Liquidity $879.3
October 31
- Yes59%
- No42%
Volume $103.8 · Liquidity $672.1
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Moody's Ratings or S&P Global Ratings publishes a rating action lowering its long-term sovereign credit rating for the Republic of France, at any point between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying downgrade by either agency is sufficient for this market to resolve "Yes." A downgrade by both agencies is not required. For purposes of this market, “long-term sovereign credit rating” means any of the following: S&P Global Ratings’ long-term foreign-currency sovereign credit rating or long-term local-currency sovereign credit rating on France; or Moody’s Ratings’ long-term issuer rating or senior unsecured rating on the Government of France. A lowering of any of these qualifies. A change in outlook or CreditWatch/review status alone (for example, a move from Stable to Negative outlook, or placement on review for downgrade), an affirmation of an existing rating, a withdrawal of a rating, or a change to a short-term rating will not qualify. Only a lowering of a long-term sovereign credit rating itself will qualify. Rating actions by any agency other than Moody's Ratings and S&P Global Ratings — including Fitch Ratings, Scope Ratings and DBRS Morningstar — will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be the official rating action publications of Moody's Ratings ( and S&P Global Ratings ( together with the Agence France Trésor published ratings page ( however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
More Economy markets

EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026?
30M+: 85%
24h vol $2.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
No change: 93%
24h vol $9.7K · Ends Oct 30, 2026

Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027?
Yes: 80%
24h vol $1.2K · Ends Jul 1, 2027

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?
25 bps increase: 55%
24h vol $3.6K · Ends Dec 9, 2026

Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase: 75%
24h vol $7.3K · Ends Dec 10, 2026

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes: 78%
24h vol $6K · Ends Dec 10, 2026

UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?
0.4–0.5%: 39%
24h vol $1.3K · Ends Nov 13, 2026

How many jobs added in October?
100k+: 26%
24h vol $7K · Ends Nov 7, 2026

Bank of Mexico Decision in November?
No change: 69%
24h vol $2.8K · Ends Nov 5, 2026

Bank of England decision in November?
25 bps increase: 90%
24h vol $1.1K · Ends Nov 5, 2026

ISM Services PMI - October 2026
53.0 to 53.9: 30%
24h vol $1.4K · Ends Nov 4, 2026

Bank of Brazil decision in November?
25 bps decrease: 87%
24h vol $2.4K · Ends Nov 4, 2026

