Economy Prediction Markets
Interest rates, inflation, jobs data and macro events.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Fed Decision in October?
No change: 87%
24h vol $2.3M · Ends Oct 29, 2026
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
↑$1.5T: 86%
24h vol $198.9K · Ends Jan 5, 2027
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?
↑ $100: 88%
24h vol $139.6K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 89%
24h vol $118.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
$1.75–$2.0T: 24%
24h vol $117.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase: 78%
24h vol $95.3K · Ends Dec 10, 2026
Anthropic IPO by __?
December 31, 2026: 60%
24h vol $87.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps): 97%
24h vol $73.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
SpaceX: 64%
24h vol $64K · Ends Jan 2, 2027
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes: 80%
24h vol $53.1K · Ends Dec 10, 2026
Largest Company end of October 2026?
NVIDIA: 82%
24h vol $41.7K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 16?
Down: 97%
24h vol $40.7K · Ends Oct 16, 2026
Fed Decision in January?
No change: 66%
24h vol $31.9K · Ends Jan 28, 2027
SpaceX (SPCX) closes week of Oct 12 at ___?
$145-$150: 68%
24h vol $30.6K · Ends Oct 16, 2026
Bank of Israel Decision in October?
No Change: 78%
24h vol $28.7K · Ends Oct 21, 2026
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.7%: 21%
24h vol $28.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Hike–Pause–Hike: 70%
24h vol $25.2K · Ends Dec 9, 2026
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of October 12 above___?
$325: 99%
24h vol $24.9K · Ends Oct 16, 2026
Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIA: 70%
24h vol $24.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit Week of October 12 2026?
↑ $100: 44%
24h vol $23.4K · Ends Oct 16, 2026
What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit Week of October 12 2026?
↑ $58: 49%
24h vol $23.4K · Ends Oct 16, 2026
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above ___ on October 16?
$91: 99%
24h vol $23K · Ends Oct 16, 2026
Swiss National Bank decision in December?
No Change: 80%
24h vol $20.5K · Ends Dec 10, 2026
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 16?
$750: 100%
24h vol $19.1K · Ends Oct 16, 2026
US recession by end of 2026?
No: 94%
24h vol $18.9K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit in October 2026?
↓ $345: 72%
24h vol $18.9K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in October 2026?
↑ $4,200: 87%
24h vol $18.4K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
No change: 97%
24h vol $17.6K · Ends Oct 30, 2026
Crude Oil all time high by...?
March 31, 2027: 21%
24h vol $17.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Amazon (AMZN) closes above ___ on October 16?
$240: 100%
24h vol $16.8K · Ends Oct 16, 2026
What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit Week of October 12 2026?
↓ $3,800: 49%
24h vol $16.5K · Ends Oct 16, 2026
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?
↑ $4,500: 50%
24h vol $16.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit Week of October 12 2026?
↑ $232: 49%
24h vol $16.1K · Ends Oct 16, 2026
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 16?
Down: 98%
24h vol $15.1K · Ends Oct 16, 2026
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
No change: 85%
24h vol $14.7K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
<$1T: 22%
24h vol $14.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit Week of October 12 2026?
↓ $330: 50%
24h vol $13.2K · Ends Oct 16, 2026
What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in October 2026?
↑ $58: 84%
24h vol $13.1K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit Week of October 12 2026?
↑ $173: 47%
24h vol $12.5K · Ends Oct 16, 2026
Google (GOOGL) closes above ___ on October 16?
$335: 97%
24h vol $11.8K · Ends Oct 16, 2026
What will the median home value in New York City be on December 31?
$458K - $471K: 28%
24h vol $11.5K · Ends Jan 11, 2027
What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?
$1.75–$2.00T: 35%
24h vol $11.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Meta (META) closes above ___ on October 16?
$710: 89%
24h vol $10.9K · Ends Oct 16, 2026
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.4%: 39%
24h vol $10.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Micron (MU) closes week of Oct 12 at ___?
<$940: 97%
24h vol $10K · Ends Oct 16, 2026
Bank of Russia decision in October?
No Change: 90%
24h vol $9.7K · Ends Oct 24, 2026
What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit Week of October 12 2026?
↓ $189: 100%
24h vol $9.5K · Ends Oct 16, 2026
Bank of Mexico Decision in November?
No change: 70%
24h vol $9.4K · Ends Nov 5, 2026