Economy Prediction Markets
Interest rates, inflation, jobs data and macro events.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Fed Decision in October?
No change: 94%
24h vol $3.9M · Ends Oct 29, 2026
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?
↑ $105: 78%
24h vol $205.2K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Anthropic IPO by __?
December 31, 2026: 82%
24h vol $118.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
$1.75–$2.0T: 28%
24h vol $88.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase: 74%
24h vol $62.9K · Ends Dec 10, 2026
Largest Company end of October 2026?
NVIDIA: 56%
24h vol $61.7K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIA: 59%
24h vol $56K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps): 96%
24h vol $55.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.70%: 76%
24h vol $50.3K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes: 74%
24h vol $39.9K · Ends Dec 10, 2026
Crude Oil all time high by...?
March 31, 2027: 25%
24h vol $37.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 5.25%: 66%
24h vol $27.4K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.3%: 40%
24h vol $26.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
1.5T+: 37%
24h vol $20.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
No: 94%
24h vol $20K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?
↑ $4,500: 50%
24h vol $18.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Hike–Pause–Hike: 72%
24h vol $18.3K · Ends Dec 9, 2026
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
↑$1.5T: 94%
24h vol $14.3K · Ends Jan 5, 2027
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 89%
24h vol $14.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
What will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit in October 2026?
↑ $660: 54%
24h vol $13.1K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?
Apple: 56%
24h vol $12.8K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
4.80%: 99%
24h vol $12.7K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
IPOs before 2027?
Anthropic: 82%
24h vol $12.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Core PCE MoM - September 2026
0.3%: 57%
24h vol $11.4K · Ends Oct 29, 2026
In which month will Anthropic IPO?
November 2026: 62%
24h vol $11K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
↑$1.3T: 76%
24h vol $10K · Ends Jan 5, 2027
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
1.8T+: 70%
24h vol $9.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?
November 30: 44%
24h vol $8.8K · Ends Dec 1, 2026
Bank of Canada Decision in October?
25 bps increase: 81%
24h vol $8.6K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
5.0%: 6%
24h vol $6.9K · Ends Apr 1, 2027
Central Bank of Colombia decision in October
No change: 61%
24h vol $6.7K · Ends Oct 30, 2026
US economic state at the end of 2026?
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%): 90%
24h vol $6.3K · Ends Feb 1, 2027
Fed Decision in January?
No change: 68%
24h vol $6.2K · Ends Jan 28, 2027
Bank of Russia decision in December?
No change: 63%
24h vol $6K · Ends Dec 18, 2026
USD x Iranian rials End of October?
2.8M+: 37%
24h vol $6K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?
3.0-3.5%: 42%
24h vol $5.8K · Ends Oct 30, 2026
ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
No change: 99%
24h vol $5.6K · Ends Oct 30, 2026
Bank of Mexico Decision in November?
No change: 79%
24h vol $4.9K · Ends Nov 5, 2026
US recession by end of 2026?
No: 93%
24h vol $3.8K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Bank of Japan Decision in October?
No change: 97%
24h vol $3.6K · Ends Oct 30, 2026
October Inflation China - Annual
0.7% to 0.8%: 41%
24h vol $3.6K · Ends Nov 9, 2026
What will the median home value in Miami be on December 31?
$809K - $830K: 38%
24h vol $3.2K · Ends Jan 11, 2027
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.40%: 56%
24h vol $3.1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.60%: 74%
24h vol $2.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
0.8-1.1%: 68%
24h vol $2.8K · Ends Oct 30, 2026
Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?
↑ 7.50%: 72%
24h vol $2.5K · Ends Jan 15, 2027
How high will inflation get in 2026?
Above 4.5%: 14%
24h vol $2.5K · Ends Feb 1, 2027
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - November 2026
46.0 to 48.9: 48%
24h vol $2.4K · Ends Nov 20, 2026