Every share on a prediction market trades somewhere between 1¢ and 99¢, and a winning share pays exactly $1.00. This simple pricing structure is the foundation for everything else you will learn.
Why Cents, Not Dollars
Pricing in cents makes it easy to compare markets at a glance. A share at 20¢ is clearly cheaper, and riskier, than one at 80¢. Because the payout for a winner is always $1.00, the price you pay is also your maximum loss per share.
Reading a Price
Say a market asks "Will the team win the championship?" and YES shares trade at 35¢. That 35¢ is what you would pay to control one YES share. If the team wins, you receive $1.00, a profit of 65¢. If the team loses, your share is worth $0 and you lose the 35¢ you paid.
Price Moves With Information
Prices are not fixed. As news breaks, more traders buy or sell, and the price shifts. A star player getting injured might push YES down to 20¢, while a strong performance might push it up to 55¢. Watching how a price moves over time tells you how opinion is shifting, not just where it stands today.
Cents and Fees
Keep in mind that any trading fee is usually layered on top of the share price. [verify before publishing: current standard trading fee structure] should always be checked before assuming your exact profit, since fees reduce your final payout slightly.
Worked Example
You buy 100 YES shares at 35¢ each, spending $35.00 total. The event resolves YES. Each share now pays $1.00, so you receive $100.00. Your gross profit is $65.00 before any fees. If the event had resolved NO instead, your 100 shares would be worth $0, and you would lose the full $35.00 you paid.
Key Takeaways
- Prices always sit between 1¢ and 99¢.
- A winning share always pays $1.00.
- Your price paid is your maximum possible loss per share.
- Fees are usually separate from the quoted price.