Μετάβαση στο περιεχόμενο
ThePolyAcademy
EL

Next leader out of power before 2027?

{name}: πιθανότητες σε πραγματικό χρόνο

  • None before 2027

    • Yes48%
    • No53%

    Volume $178.4K · Liquidity $58.9K

  • Netanyahu - Israel PM

    • Yes25%
    • No75%

    Volume $164.1K · Liquidity $28.3K

  • Sánchez - Spanish PM

    • Yes14%
    • No86%

    Volume $46.5K · Liquidity $37.3K

  • Lula da Silva - Brazil President

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $40.2K · Liquidity $31.2K

  • Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

    • Yes1%
    • No100%

    Volume $36.8K · Liquidity $32.4K

  • Merz - German Chancellor

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $36.4K · Liquidity $24.8K

  • Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $31.9K · Liquidity $31.9K

  • Trump - USA President

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $31.4K · Liquidity $30.3K

  • Lecornu - France PM

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $31.3K · Liquidity $24.3K

  • Macron - France President

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $30.9K · Liquidity $30.8K

  • Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

    • Yes2%
    • No99%

    Volume $30K · Liquidity $28.1K

  • Erdoğan - Türkiye President

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $29.8K · Liquidity $27.2K

  • Newsom - California Governor

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $29.8K · Liquidity $27.1K

  • Albanese - Australia PM

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $29.5K · Liquidity $27.2K

  • Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $28.5K · Liquidity $27.7K

  • Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

    • Yes1%
    • No100%

    Volume $27.4K · Liquidity $30.4K

  • Abbas - President of Palestine

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $27K · Liquidity $28.4K

  • Takaichi - Japan PM

    • Yes1%
    • No100%

    Volume $26.5K · Liquidity $26K

  • Putin - Russia President

    • Yes1%
    • No100%

    Volume $25.8K · Liquidity $37.1K

  • Sheinbaum - Mexico President

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $25.2K · Liquidity $24.3K

  • al-Sharaa - Syria President

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $23.7K · Liquidity $22.5K

  • Milei - Argentina President

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $23.6K · Liquidity $25.9K

Κανόνες καθορισμού του αποτελέσματος

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Πώς να ερμηνεύσεις αυτές τις πιθανότητες

Κάθε τιμή κυμαίνεται από $0 έως $1 και μπορεί να ερμηνευτεί ως η πιθανότητα που αποδίδει η αγορά σε ένα ενδεχόμενο: η τιμή $0.62 αντιστοιχεί σε πιθανότητα περίπου 62%. Οι τιμές αλλάζουν με κάθε συναλλαγή, επομένως αποτελούν συλλογική εκτίμηση και όχι εγγύηση. Πριν κάνεις συναλλαγές, έλεγξε τους παραπάνω κανόνες καθορισμού του αποτελέσματος, τον όγκο συναλλαγών και τη ρευστότητα. Ρίσκαρε μόνο χρήματα που αντέχεις οικονομικά να χάσεις.

Εργαλεία υπολογισμού πιθανοτήτων · Γλωσσάρι · Δωρεάν μαθήματα

Περισσότερες αγορές για Πολιτική