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ThePolyAcademy
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Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?

{name}: aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeiten

  • No release by October 31

    • Yes80%
    • No21%

    Volume $8K · Liquidity $2K

  • October 28

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $3.3K · Liquidity $1.4K

  • October 21

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $3K · Liquidity $1.3K

  • October 14

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $2.5K · Liquidity $1.4K

  • October 19

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $2.1K · Liquidity $1.5K

  • October 16

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $1.6K · Liquidity $1.3K

  • October 6

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $1.6K · Liquidity —

  • On or prior to October 1

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $1.4K · Liquidity —

  • October 9

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $1.3K · Liquidity —

  • October 7

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $1.3K · Liquidity —

  • October 2

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $1.2K · Liquidity —

  • October 3

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $1.2K · Liquidity —

  • October 5

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $1.1K · Liquidity —

  • October 26

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $1.1K · Liquidity $1.2K

  • October 8

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $1.1K · Liquidity —

  • October 4

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $1K · Liquidity —

  • October 23

    • Yes9%
    • No91%

    Volume $750.4 · Liquidity $1.4K

  • October 11

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $719 · Liquidity —

  • October 31

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $689.6 · Liquidity $1.2K

  • October 10

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $680.2 · Liquidity —

  • October 13

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $579.3 · Liquidity $807.8

  • October 17

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $550.5 · Liquidity $1.3K

  • October 20

    • Yes8%
    • No92%

    Volume $540.1 · Liquidity $1.5K

  • October 25

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $509.1 · Liquidity $1.2K

  • October 30

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $501 · Liquidity $1.2K

  • October 15

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $491.2 · Liquidity $1.2K

  • October 22

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $485.4 · Liquidity $1.2K

  • October 24

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $466.2 · Liquidity $1.2K

  • October 18

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $463.7 · Liquidity $1.5K

  • October 27

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $329.2 · Liquidity $1.1K

  • October 29

    • Yes1%
    • No100%

    Volume $325.1 · Liquidity $1K

  • October 12

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $282.4 · Liquidity $865.5

Regeln zur Ergebnisfeststellung

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

So liest du diese Wahrscheinlichkeiten

Jeder Preis liegt zwischen 0 und 1 US-Dollar und lässt sich als die Wahrscheinlichkeit interpretieren, die der Markt einem Ergebnis zuschreibt: 0,62 US-Dollar entsprechen etwa 62 %. Die Preise ändern sich mit jedem Handel. Sie spiegeln also die gemeinsame Einschätzung der Marktteilnehmer wider und sind keine Garantie. Prüfe vor dem Handel die oben genannten Regeln zur Ergebnisfeststellung, das Handelsvolumen und die Liquidität. Riskiere nur Geld, dessen Verlust du dir leisten kannst.

Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechner · Glossar · Kostenlose Kurse

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