Politik Prediction Markets
Wahlen, Gesetze und politische Ereignisse, vom Markt bepreist.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Jeder Preis liegt zwischen 0 und 1 US-Dollar und lässt sich als die Wahrscheinlichkeit interpretieren, die der Markt einem Ergebnis zuschreibt: 0,62 US-Dollar entsprechen etwa 62 %. Die Preise ändern sich mit jedem Handel. Sie spiegeln also die gemeinsame Einschätzung der Marktteilnehmer wider und sind keine Garantie. Prüfe vor dem Handel die oben genannten Regeln zur Ergebnisfeststellung, das Handelsvolumen und die Liquidität. Riskiere nur Geld, dessen Verlust du dir leisten kannst.

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep: 62%
24h vol $938K · Ends 4. Nov. 2026

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?
October 12: 100%
24h vol $859.5K · Ends 31. Okt. 2026

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 12: 100%
24h vol $830.1K · Ends 31. Okt. 2026

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 18%
24h vol $701.2K · Ends 8. Nov. 2028

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
No Hormuz Agreement: 89%
24h vol $612.8K · Ends 4. Nov. 2026

Elon Musk # tweets October 6 - October 13, 2026?
340-359: 69%
24h vol $573.1K · Ends 13. Okt. 2026

Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 42%
24h vol $573.1K · Ends 19. Apr. 2027

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31: 5%
24h vol $458.7K · Ends 1. Jan. 2027

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 83%
24h vol $402.6K · Ends 1. Jan. 2027

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 67%
24h vol $312.1K · Ends 1. Jan. 2027

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)
No: 99%
24h vol $296.1K · Ends 11. Okt. 2026

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 46%
24h vol $260.5K · Ends 28. Okt. 2026

Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 87%
24h vol $188.5K · Ends 26. Okt. 2026

Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance: 22%
24h vol $175.1K · Ends 8. Nov. 2028

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $170.1K · Ends 26. Okt. 2026

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia: 63%
24h vol $156K · Ends 25. Okt. 2026

Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?
220-239: 26%
24h vol $153.1K · Ends 16. Okt. 2026

Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D): 63%
24h vol $126.2K · Ends 4. Nov. 2026

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Aleksandar Vučić: 71%
24h vol $125K · Ends 26. Okt. 2026

Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party: 91%
24h vol $120.2K · Ends 4. Nov. 2026

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 49%
24h vol $78.7K · Ends 8. Nov. 2028

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31: 17%
24h vol $69K · Ends 1. Jan. 2027

Ohio enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 27%
24h vol $65.8K · Ends 1. Jan. 2029

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
June 30, 2027: 9%
24h vol $65K · Ends 1. Juli 2027

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
No: 94%
24h vol $64.8K · Ends 1. Jan. 2027

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
No: 68%
24h vol $58.2K · Ends 1. Aug. 2027

California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra: 96%
24h vol $55.7K · Ends 4. Nov. 2026

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $55.6K · Ends 1. Jan. 2027

Next leader out of power before 2027?
None before 2027: 48%
24h vol $52.1K · Ends 1. Jan. 2027

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?
No: 77%
24h vol $46.4K · Ends 1. Nov. 2026

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
June 30, 2027: 56%
24h vol $45.4K · Ends 1. Jan. 2027

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
December 31, 2027: 46%
24h vol $45.2K · Ends 1. Jan. 2027

Taipei Mayor Election Winner
Chiang Wan-an: 66%
24h vol $44.1K · Ends 29. Nov. 2026

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
No Hormuz Agreement: 84%
24h vol $42.7K · Ends 4. Nov. 2026

Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 26%
24h vol $39.1K · Ends 1. Jan. 2029

Elon Musk # tweets October 12 - October 14, 2026?
40-64: 56%
24h vol $38.5K · Ends 14. Okt. 2026

Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro: 71%
24h vol $37K · Ends 1. Jan. 2027

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 2027: 67%
24h vol $36.4K · Ends 1. Juli 2027

Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027: 22%
24h vol $34.7K · Ends 1. Juli 2027

Next Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena Andersson: 82%
24h vol $34.6K · Ends 14. Sept. 2026

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?
December 31: 51%
24h vol $34.5K · Ends 1. Jan. 2027

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party: 64%
24h vol $34.2K · Ends 4. Nov. 2026

Saudi airspace closed by...?
December 31: 18%
24h vol $34.1K · Ends 1. Jan. 2027

Michigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D): 71%
24h vol $33K · Ends 4. Nov. 2026

Modi out by December 31, 2026?
No: 96%
24h vol $28.8K · Ends 1. Jan. 2027

Next Prime Minister of Spain?
Alberto Núñez Feijóo: 80%
24h vol $26.9K · Ends 1. Apr. 2028

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate: 62%
24h vol $25.3K · Ends 4. Nov. 2026

Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Luca Niculescu: 58%
24h vol $25K · Ends 1. Jan. 2028

