Gå til indhold

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

{name}: liveodds

  • October 31

    • Yes81%
    • No19%

    Volume $114.2K · Liquidity $12.9K

  • October 24

    • Yes65%
    • No36%

    Volume $37.5K · Liquidity $3K

  • October 10

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $37.4K · Liquidity —

  • October 17

    • Yes34%
    • No67%

    Volume $30K · Liquidity $3.5K

  • October 9

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $28.9K · Liquidity —

  • October 14

    • Yes16%
    • No85%

    Volume $24.3K · Liquidity $4.1K

  • October 12

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $20.2K · Liquidity $4.5K

  • October 8

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $17.5K · Liquidity —

  • December 31

    • Yes95%
    • No5%

    Volume $10.9K · Liquidity $3.2K

Regler for afgørelse

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Sådan læser du disse odds

Hver pris ligger mellem 0 og 1 dollar og kan læses som den sandsynlighed, markedet tillægger et udfald: 0,62 dollar svarer til cirka 62 %. Priserne ændrer sig med hver handel, så de afspejler markedsdeltagernes samlede vurdering – ikke en garanti. Før du handler, bør du tjekke reglerne for afgørelse ovenfor, handelsvolumen og likviditeten. Risikér kun penge, du har råd til at tabe.

Sandsynlighedsberegnere · Ordliste · Gratis kurser