Politik Prediction Markets
Valg, lovgivning og politiske begivenheder, som markedet prissætter.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Hver pris ligger mellem 0 og 1 dollar og kan læses som den sandsynlighed, markedet tillægger et udfald: 0,62 dollar svarer til cirka 62 %. Priserne ændrer sig med hver handel, så de afspejler markedsdeltagernes samlede vurdering – ikke en garanti. Før du handler, bør du tjekke reglerne for afgørelse ovenfor, handelsvolumen og likviditeten. Risikér kun penge, du har råd til at tabe.

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep: 62%
24h vol $980.2K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
No Hormuz Agreement: 88%
24h vol $971.2K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 12: 99%
24h vol $782K · Ends 31. okt. 2026

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?
October 12: 100%
24h vol $779.8K · Ends 31. okt. 2026

Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 40%
24h vol $745.8K · Ends 19. apr. 2027

Elon Musk # tweets October 6 - October 13, 2026?
340-359: 66%
24h vol $639.2K · Ends 13. okt. 2026

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 67%
24h vol $354.5K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 18%
24h vol $342.4K · Ends 8. nov. 2028

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 45%
24h vol $330.9K · Ends 28. okt. 2026

Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 87%
24h vol $274.6K · Ends 26. okt. 2026

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31: 3%
24h vol $267.8K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 83%
24h vol $226.6K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance: 23%
24h vol $189K · Ends 8. nov. 2028

Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D): 63%
24h vol $167.8K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia: 62%
24h vol $159.2K · Ends 25. okt. 2026

Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party: 91%
24h vol $120.6K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
No Hormuz Agreement: 83%
24h vol $116.4K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?
220-239: 24%
24h vol $111.9K · Ends 16. okt. 2026

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 86%
24h vol $110.8K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 49%
24h vol $87.4K · Ends 8. nov. 2028

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $80.3K · Ends 26. okt. 2026

Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 27%
24h vol $75.1K · Ends 1. jan. 2029

Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 26%
24h vol $72.5K · Ends 1. jan. 2029

Ohio enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 27%
24h vol $66.2K · Ends 1. jan. 2029

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
June 30, 2027: 9%
24h vol $66.1K · Ends 1. jul. 2027

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
No: 94%
24h vol $61K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
No: 68%
24h vol $58.2K · Ends 1. aug. 2027

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $57.8K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra: 96%
24h vol $56.4K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Aleksandar Vučić: 67%
24h vol $53.2K · Ends 26. okt. 2026

Saudi airspace closed by...?
December 31: 20%
24h vol $51.5K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?
No: 77%
24h vol $48.8K · Ends 1. nov. 2026

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 2027: 67%
24h vol $46.8K · Ends 1. jul. 2027

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31: 16%
24h vol $46.6K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party: 64%
24h vol $45.8K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
June 30, 2027: 61%
24h vol $45.8K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

Taipei Mayor Election Winner
Chiang Wan-an: 65%
24h vol $45.6K · Ends 29. nov. 2026

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?
No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate: 31%
24h vol $44.9K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027: 22%
24h vol $38.3K · Ends 1. jul. 2027

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
No: 99%
24h vol $37.5K · Ends 1. nov. 2026

Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro: 72%
24h vol $36.3K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 31: 55%
24h vol $34.1K · Ends 31. dec. 2026

Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 26%
24h vol $30.7K · Ends 1. jan. 2029

Next Prime Minister of Spain?
Alberto Núñez Feijóo: 80%
24h vol $30.5K · Ends 1. apr. 2028

Michigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D): 71%
24h vol $29.4K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

Modi out by December 31, 2026?
No: 96%
24h vol $29.1K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Luca Niculescu: 60%
24h vol $27.1K · Ends 1. jan. 2028

Next leader out of power before 2027?
None before 2027: 52%
24h vol $26.8K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

