Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31?
{name}: probabilidades em tempo real
Dario Amodei
- Yes49%
- No51%
Volume $6.5K · Liquidity $296.5
Karoline Leavitt
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $6.3K · Liquidity —
Kevin Warsh
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $5.7K · Liquidity —
Gianni Infantino
- Yes45%
- No56%
Volume $5K · Liquidity $142
Zohran Mamdani
- Yes67%
- No34%
Volume $4.4K · Liquidity $146.7
Benjamin Netanyahu
- Yes42%
- No58%
Volume $4.2K · Liquidity $286.2
Warren Buffett
- Yes10%
- No91%
Volume $3.9K · Liquidity $633.5
Mark Rutte
- Yes71%
- No30%
Volume $3.9K · Liquidity $22.8
Javier Milei
- Yes25%
- No76%
Volume $3.9K · Liquidity $346.7
Flávio Bolsonaro
- Yes85%
- No16%
Volume $3.4K · Liquidity $531.3
Emmanuel Macron
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $3.2K · Liquidity —
Elon Musk
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $3.2K · Liquidity —
Andy Burnham
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $2K · Liquidity —
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
- Yes30%
- No71%
Volume $1.9K · Liquidity $100.5
Bryson DeChambeau
- Yes38%
- No63%
Volume $1.6K · Liquidity $94.2
Delcy Rodriguez
- Yes78%
- No23%
Volume $1.3K · Liquidity $194.6
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
- Yes30%
- No71%
Volume $1.3K · Liquidity $140.6
Claudia Sheinbaum
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $1.1K · Liquidity —
Nicki Minaj
- Yes19%
- No81%
Volume $1.1K · Liquidity $98.6
Dana White
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $862.5 · Liquidity —
Byron Donalds
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $853.5 · Liquidity —
Kim Jong Un
- Yes35%
- No66%
Volume $728.1 · Liquidity $272
JD Vance
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $620.7 · Liquidity —
Xi Jinping
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $574.5 · Liquidity —
Jon Rahm
- Yes10%
- No91%
Volume $44.1 · Liquidity $176.1
Regras de resolução
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he praises the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain praising language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Praising language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as praise, or endorses praising language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as praise if it expresses approval, admiration, respect, or endorsement of the individual either personally or professionally. This includes direct praise, attributing a positive personal or professional trait to the individual (e.g., strong, smart, loyal, a winner), or equivalent positive descriptions. General neutrality or polite diplomatic language will not qualify unless it contains a clear element of positive evaluation. A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
Como interpretar essas probabilidades
Cada preço varia de US$ 0 a US$ 1 e pode ser interpretado como a probabilidade que o mercado atribui a um resultado: US$ 0,62 significa aproximadamente 62%. Os preços mudam a cada negociação, então representam uma estimativa coletiva, não uma garantia. Antes de negociar, confira as regras de resolução acima, o volume e a liquidez, e arrisque apenas o dinheiro que você pode perder sem comprometer suas finanças.
Calculadoras de probabilidade · Glossário · Cursos gratuitos
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