Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
{name}: probabilidades em tempo real
Jimmy Kimmel
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $8.6K · Liquidity —
Tucker Carlson
- Yes38%
- No62%
Volume $8.1K · Liquidity $46.3
Marjorie Taylor Greene
- Yes61%
- No40%
Volume $7.8K · Liquidity $70.6
Candace Owens
- Yes30%
- No71%
Volume $5.8K · Liquidity $253.2
Ilhan Omar
- Yes70%
- No31%
Volume $5.4K · Liquidity $491.1
Barack Obama
- Yes99%
- No1%
Volume $5.3K · Liquidity $2.3K
Chuck Schumer
- Yes41%
- No59%
Volume $5K · Liquidity $151.4
Hillary Clinton
- Yes53%
- No48%
Volume $4.4K · Liquidity $193.2
Hakeem Jeffries
- Yes45%
- No55%
Volume $4.4K · Liquidity $97.4
Kamala Harris
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $3.9K · Liquidity —
Zohran Mamdani
- Yes20%
- No80%
Volume $3.8K · Liquidity $232
Gavin Newsom
- Yes65%
- No35%
Volume $3.8K · Liquidity $257.5
Hasan Piker
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $3.5K · Liquidity —
Joe Biden
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $3K · Liquidity —
Ken Paxton
- Yes26%
- No74%
Volume $2.9K · Liquidity $117.8
Kaitlan Collins
- Yes90%
- No10%
Volume $2.8K · Liquidity $1K
Jon Ossoff
- Yes96%
- No4%
Volume $2.4K · Liquidity $6.8K
Pope Leo XIV
- Yes3%
- No98%
Volume $2.3K · Liquidity $209.2
Jerome Powell
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $2.2K · Liquidity —
Thomas Massie
- Yes44%
- No56%
Volume $2.1K · Liquidity $91.3
Friedrich Merz
- Yes16%
- No85%
Volume $2K · Liquidity $125.2
J.D. Vance
- Yes3%
- No97%
Volume $1.9K · Liquidity $285.7
Abdul El-Sayed
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $1.7K · Liquidity —
Mark Carney
- Yes56%
- No44%
Volume $1.7K · Liquidity $327.8
Vladimir Putin
- Yes3%
- No97%
Volume $1.4K · Liquidity $324.4
Elizabeth Warren
- Yes54%
- No46%
Volume $1.4K · Liquidity $212.2
Kathy Hochul
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $1.2K · Liquidity —
Nicolás Maduro
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $1K · Liquidity —
Emmanuel Macron
- Yes14%
- No86%
Volume $933.8 · Liquidity $27.7
Benjamin Netanyahu
- Yes19%
- No81%
Volume $905.5 · Liquidity $85.8
James Talarico
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $631.2 · Liquidity —
Mike Rogers
- Yes7%
- No94%
Volume $529.3 · Liquidity $79.3
Xi Jinping
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $409.2 · Liquidity $332.5
Letitia James
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $356.5 · Liquidity —
Elon Musk
- Yes3%
- No97%
Volume $283.7 · Liquidity $98.7
J.B. Pritzker
- Yes71%
- No29%
Volume $278.8 · Liquidity $132.5
Kevin Warsh
- Yes3%
- No97%
Volume $176.4 · Liquidity $404.7
Masoud Pezeshkian
- Yes14%
- No86%
Volume $82 · Liquidity $86.6
Andy Burnham
- Yes8%
- No92%
Volume $31.1 · Liquidity $112.7
Dario Amodei
- Yes9%
- No92%
Volume $31.1 · Liquidity $70.3
Stephen Colbert
- Yes17%
- No83%
Volume $6.1 · Liquidity $68
Regras de resolução
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare"). A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
Como interpretar essas probabilidades
Cada preço varia de US$ 0 a US$ 1 e pode ser interpretado como a probabilidade que o mercado atribui a um resultado: US$ 0,62 significa aproximadamente 62%. Os preços mudam a cada negociação, então representam uma estimativa coletiva, não uma garantia. Antes de negociar, confira as regras de resolução acima, o volume e a liquidez, e arrisque apenas o dinheiro que você pode perder sem comprometer suas finanças.
Calculadoras de probabilidade · Glossário · Cursos gratuitos
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