France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?
{name} : cotes en direct
December 31
- Yes4%
- No96%
Volume $32.5K · Liquidity $46.7K
November 15
- Yes3%
- No97%
Volume $26.6K · Liquidity $87.7K
October 31
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $25.4K · Liquidity $41.5K
Règles de résolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of siege" (état de siège) as defined by Article 36 of the French Constitution and Articles L2121-1 to L2121-8 of the Defence Code (Code de la défense). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of siege under Article 36 of the French Constitution will count. If the legal name of the state of siege changes but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a state of emergency (état d'urgence) under Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955, a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire), the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, or the deployment or requisition of the armed forces for domestic security operations (e.g. Opération Sentinelle) without a decree declaring a state of siege will not count. Statements that a state of siege is being considered, or informal references to "martial law", will not count unless accompanied by a qualifying decree. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Comment interpréter ces cotes
Chaque prix varie de 0 à 1 dollar et peut être interprété comme la probabilité que le marché attribue à une issue : 0,62 dollar correspond à environ 62 %. Les prix évoluent à chaque transaction : ils reflètent donc une estimation collective, et non une garantie. Avant de négocier, consultez les règles de résolution ci-dessus, vérifiez le volume des échanges et la liquidité, et ne risquez que l’argent que vous pouvez vous permettre de perdre.
Plus de marchés sur Politique

Macron out by...?
No: 96%
24h vol $23.8K · Ends 1 janv. 2027

Paris curfew announced by...?
October 31: 9%
24h vol $27K · Ends 1 nov. 2026

Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 48%
24h vol $797.4K · Ends 19 avr. 2027

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 59%
24h vol $176.6K · Ends 1 janv. 2027

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 96%
24h vol $175.5K · Ends 1 janv. 2027

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 85%
24h vol $127.7K · Ends 1 janv. 2027

Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro: 78%
24h vol $94.6K · Ends 1 janv. 2027

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?
December 31: 30%
24h vol $74K · Ends 1 janv. 2027

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 88%
24h vol $62.9K · Ends 1 janv. 2027

Trump out as President before 2027?
No: 96%
24h vol $61.7K · Ends 1 janv. 2027

Next Press Secretary announced by...?
December 31: 82%
24h vol $54.9K · Ends 1 janv. 2027

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31: 5%
24h vol $54.9K · Ends 1 janv. 2027

