Mercados de predicción de Política
Elecciones, legislación y eventos políticos valorados por la multitud.
Datos de Polymarket, actualizados ….
Solo informativo. No es asesoramiento financiero ni de apuestas. Las probabilidades reflejan precios de mercado, no certezas.
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 79%
Vol. 24h $2.3M · Cierra 26 oct 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?
340-359: 61%
Vol. 24h $984.1K · Cierra 16 oct 2026
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 46%
Vol. 24h $849.9K · Cierra 19 abr 2027
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 16: 99%
Vol. 24h $666K · Cierra 31 oct 2026
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep: 63%
Vol. 24h $538.9K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
No Hormuz Agreement: 94%
Vol. 24h $474K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party: 91%
Vol. 24h $448.9K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 59%
Vol. 24h $446K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance: 21%
Vol. 24h $387.6K · Cierra 8 nov 2028
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 49%
Vol. 24h $374.9K · Cierra 8 nov 2028
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
Vol. 24h $365.9K · Cierra 26 oct 2026
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 17%
Vol. 24h $345.6K · Cierra 8 nov 2028
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
No: 100%
Vol. 24h $281.4K · Cierra 1 nov 2026
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 49%
Vol. 24h $276.6K · Cierra 28 oct 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 84%
Vol. 24h $232K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?
Oil ≥ $80; D Senate: 60%
Vol. 24h $218K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party: 65%
Vol. 24h $204.5K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?
340-359: 18%
Vol. 24h $202.7K · Cierra 20 oct 2026
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027: 24%
Vol. 24h $146.3K · Cierra 1 jul 2027
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
No Hormuz Agreement: 97%
Vol. 24h $138.6K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
Yashar: 62%
Vol. 24h $135.6K · Cierra 28 oct 2026
Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D): 63%
Vol. 24h $118.8K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31: 4%
Vol. 24h $109.2K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?
October 18: 99%
Vol. 24h $108.8K · Cierra 31 oct 2026
Alaska Senate Election Winner
Mary Peltola: 74%
Vol. 24h $102.1K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?
December 31: 38%
Vol. 24h $97.8K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Trump out as President before 2027?
No: 96%
Vol. 24h $84.2K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 89%
Vol. 24h $76.2K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
Vol. 24h $76.2K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Argentina Presidential Election Winner
Javier Milei: 47%
Vol. 24h $70K · Cierra 25 oct 2027
Elon Musk # tweets October 15 - October 17, 2026?
90-114: 47%
Vol. 24h $67.5K · Cierra 17 oct 2026
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 31: 6%
Vol. 24h $63K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Luca Niculescu: 92%
Vol. 24h $60.7K · Cierra 1 ene 2028
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 31: 42%
Vol. 24h $58.2K · Cierra 31 dic 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 2027: 69%
Vol. 24h $51.4K · Cierra 1 jul 2027
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro: 71%
Vol. 24h $51.2K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
Oil ≥ $85; D Senate: 51%
Vol. 24h $44.6K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Houthis enter Aden by...?
December 31: 26%
Vol. 24h $44.5K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo
Candidate AA: 50%
Vol. 24h $44.1K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
Yes: 77%
Vol. 24h $40.4K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
No: 91%
Vol. 24h $39.3K · Cierra 1 ene 2028
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
No: 96%
Vol. 24h $39.1K · Cierra 1 dic 2026
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 95%
Vol. 24h $38.2K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 31: 5%
Vol. 24h $37.7K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D): 70%
Vol. 24h $37.6K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 11%
Vol. 24h $34.4K · Cierra 1 jul 2027
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?
No: 81%
Vol. 24h $33.5K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá
Flavio Bolsonaro: 76%
Vol. 24h $32K · Cierra 26 oct 2026