Mercados de predicción de Política
Elecciones, legislación y eventos políticos valorados por la multitud.
Datos de Polymarket, actualizados ….
Solo informativo. No es asesoramiento financiero ni de apuestas. Las probabilidades reflejan precios de mercado, no certezas.
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep: 68%
Vol. 24h $2.7M · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 77%
Vol. 24h $1M · Cierra 26 oct 2026
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party: 68%
Vol. 24h $828.5K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 22: 97%
Vol. 24h $793.7K · Cierra 31 oct 2026
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party: 92%
Vol. 24h $687.8K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
Vol. 24h $561K · Cierra 26 oct 2026
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 51%
Vol. 24h $526.3K · Cierra 28 oct 2026
France declares state of emergency by...?
December 31: 17%
Vol. 24h $351.2K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 18%
Vol. 24h $306.5K · Cierra 8 nov 2028
Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia: 72%
Vol. 24h $279.4K · Cierra 25 oct 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 22 - October 24, 2026?
65-89: 66%
Vol. 24h $234.5K · Cierra 24 oct 2026
Next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Aleksandar Vučić: 68%
Vol. 24h $226.4K · Cierra 26 oct 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 11%
Vol. 24h $216.1K · Cierra 1 jul 2027
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 57%
Vol. 24h $201K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Elon Musk # tweets October 20 - October 27, 2026?
300-319: 23%
Vol. 24h $199.5K · Cierra 27 oct 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 2027: 72%
Vol. 24h $180K · Cierra 1 jul 2027
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá
Flavio Bolsonaro: 65%
Vol. 24h $178.6K · Cierra 26 oct 2026
Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Iotova 10-20%: 57%
Vol. 24h $175.3K · Cierra 25 oct 2026
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 46%
Vol. 24h $170.3K · Cierra 19 abr 2027
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 49%
Vol. 24h $154.6K · Cierra 8 nov 2028
Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D): 67%
Vol. 24h $149.1K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 31: 85%
Vol. 24h $138.8K · Cierra 31 dic 2026
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 95%
Vol. 24h $137.7K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance: 20%
Vol. 24h $123.3K · Cierra 8 nov 2028
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D): 72%
Vol. 24h $110K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
No: 100%
Vol. 24h $109.5K · Cierra 1 nov 2026
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31: 5%
Vol. 24h $93K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Bulgaria Presidential Election
Iliana Iotova: 86%
Vol. 24h $79.5K · Cierra 26 oct 2026
Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
Oil ≥ $85; D Senate: 65%
Vol. 24h $78.5K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 83%
Vol. 24h $78.1K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
Vol. 24h $74.6K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤47: 43%
Vol. 24h $72.5K · Cierra 3 nov 2026
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
Yashar: 70%
Vol. 24h $65.2K · Cierra 28 oct 2026
Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?
Oil ≥ $80; D Senate: 67%
Vol. 24h $64K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Next leader out of power before 2027?
None before 2027: 50%
Vol. 24h $60.6K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Taipei Mayor Election Winner
Chiang Wan-an: 63%
Vol. 24h $59.4K · Cierra 29 nov 2026
US imports Russian diesel by...?
December 31: 86%
Vol. 24h $58.9K · Cierra 1 dic 2026
Iowa Senate Election Winner
Ashley Hinson (R): 57%
Vol. 24h $58.7K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
No Hormuz Agreement: 91%
Vol. 24h $58.1K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 23 - October 30, 2026?
300-319: 14%
Vol. 24h $57.5K · Cierra 30 oct 2026
Texas Governor Election Winner
Greg Abbott (R): 72%
Vol. 24h $57.5K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
No: 80%
Vol. 24h $52.2K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Ohio Governor Election Winner
Amy Acton (D): 83%
Vol. 24h $51.7K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027: 25%
Vol. 24h $50.3K · Cierra 1 jul 2027
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
20-24: 42%
Vol. 24h $49.8K · Cierra 28 oct 2026
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?
No: 70%
Vol. 24h $49.2K · Cierra 31 dic 2026
Toronto Mayoral Election Winner
Olivia Chow: 65%
Vol. 24h $48.2K · Cierra 27 oct 2026
Kansas Senate Election Winner
Roger Marshall (R): 62%
Vol. 24h $47.3K · Cierra 4 nov 2026