Mercados de predicción de Política
Elecciones, legislación y eventos políticos valorados por la multitud.
Datos de Polymarket, actualizados ….
Solo informativo. No es asesoramiento financiero ni de apuestas. Las probabilidades reflejan precios de mercado, no certezas.
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep: 62%
Vol. 24h $931.8K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 18%
Vol. 24h $926.2K · Cierra 8 nov 2028
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 40%
Vol. 24h $782.7K · Cierra 19 abr 2027
US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?
October 12: 99%
Vol. 24h $729.6K · Cierra 31 oct 2026
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
No Hormuz Agreement: 89%
Vol. 24h $644.5K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 12: 98%
Vol. 24h $609.2K · Cierra 31 oct 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 6 - October 13, 2026?
340-359: 57%
Vol. 24h $487.4K · Cierra 13 oct 2026
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 45%
Vol. 24h $427.4K · Cierra 28 oct 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 66%
Vol. 24h $396.8K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 83%
Vol. 24h $295.3K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 87%
Vol. 24h $275.4K · Cierra 26 oct 2026
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31: 3%
Vol. 24h $249K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Elon Musk # tweets October 10 - October 12, 2026?
40-64: 94%
Vol. 24h $191.7K · Cierra 12 oct 2026
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance: 20%
Vol. 24h $165.7K · Cierra 8 nov 2028
Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia: 62%
Vol. 24h $157.8K · Cierra 25 oct 2026
Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D): 63%
Vol. 24h $142.3K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 27%
Vol. 24h $124.7K · Cierra 1 ene 2029
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party: 91%
Vol. 24h $114K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 86%
Vol. 24h $110.5K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
No Hormuz Agreement: 83%
Vol. 24h $107.2K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 26%
Vol. 24h $104.6K · Cierra 1 ene 2029
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 2027: 71%
Vol. 24h $102.1K · Cierra 1 jul 2027
Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?
220-239: 24%
Vol. 24h $96K · Cierra 16 oct 2026
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 49%
Vol. 24h $77.6K · Cierra 8 nov 2028
North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 28%
Vol. 24h $67.4K · Cierra 1 ene 2029
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
June 30, 2027: 9%
Vol. 24h $66.6K · Cierra 1 jul 2027
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra: 96%
Vol. 24h $63.3K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
No: 68%
Vol. 24h $58.2K · Cierra 1 ago 2027
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
Vol. 24h $57K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
Vol. 24h $55.6K · Cierra 26 oct 2026
Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 26%
Vol. 24h $54.5K · Cierra 1 ene 2029
Saudi airspace closed by...?
December 31: 20%
Vol. 24h $51.4K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?
No: 76%
Vol. 24h $50.2K · Cierra 1 nov 2026
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party: 64%
Vol. 24h $48.9K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
June 30, 2027: 60%
Vol. 24h $47.1K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 24%
Vol. 24h $45.2K · Cierra 1 ene 2029
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31: 17%
Vol. 24h $43.4K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Taipei Mayor Election Winner
Chiang Wan-an: 66%
Vol. 24h $42.1K · Cierra 29 nov 2026
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro: 72%
Vol. 24h $41.1K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 31: 55%
Vol. 24h $40.2K · Cierra 31 dic 2026
Next Prime Minister of Spain?
Alberto Núñez Feijóo: 81%
Vol. 24h $38.9K · Cierra 1 abr 2028
Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?
No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate: 31%
Vol. 24h $32.9K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
No: 99%
Vol. 24h $31.1K · Cierra 1 nov 2026
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
No: 95%
Vol. 24h $31K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?
December 31: 54%
Vol. 24h $29.5K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027: 22%
Vol. 24h $27.8K · Cierra 1 jul 2027
Next leader out of power before 2027?
None before 2027: 48%
Vol. 24h $27.6K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Luca Niculescu: 54%
Vol. 24h $26.7K · Cierra 1 ene 2028