Mercados de predicción de Política
Elecciones, legislación y eventos políticos valorados por la multitud.
Datos de Polymarket, actualizados ….
Solo informativo. No es asesoramiento financiero ni de apuestas. Las probabilidades reflejan precios de mercado, no certezas.
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 17: 99%
Vol. 24h $1.4M · Cierra 31 oct 2026
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 77%
Vol. 24h $740.1K · Cierra 26 oct 2026
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 49%
Vol. 24h $691.8K · Cierra 8 nov 2028
Elon Musk # tweets October 15 - October 17, 2026?
90-114: 78%
Vol. 24h $606.3K · Cierra 17 oct 2026
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
Vol. 24h $390.6K · Cierra 26 oct 2026
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31: 5%
Vol. 24h $369.2K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party: 91%
Vol. 24h $356.8K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
No Hormuz Agreement: 91%
Vol. 24h $348.3K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
Oil ≥ $85; D Senate: 60%
Vol. 24h $316.4K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 51%
Vol. 24h $296.5K · Cierra 28 oct 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?
360-379: 23%
Vol. 24h $282.7K · Cierra 20 oct 2026
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep: 63%
Vol. 24h $241.5K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 17%
Vol. 24h $234.2K · Cierra 8 nov 2028
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 46%
Vol. 24h $232.7K · Cierra 19 abr 2027
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party: 65%
Vol. 24h $222.2K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Next Press Secretary announced by...?
December 31: 83%
Vol. 24h $221.4K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 57%
Vol. 24h $158.2K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D): 63%
Vol. 24h $156.7K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31: 18%
Vol. 24h $156.4K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 95%
Vol. 24h $130.2K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?
280-299: 12%
Vol. 24h $129.2K · Cierra 23 oct 2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
Yes: 78%
Vol. 24h $128.5K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D): 71%
Vol. 24h $110K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Luca Niculescu: 96%
Vol. 24h $96.9K · Cierra 1 ene 2028
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate: 64%
Vol. 24h $94.1K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 85%
Vol. 24h $88.9K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Next Press Secretary?
Candidate CB: 50%
Vol. 24h $87.4K · Cierra 1 ene 2028
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 2027: 68%
Vol. 24h $78.7K · Cierra 1 jul 2027
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 11%
Vol. 24h $71K · Cierra 1 jul 2027
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra: 96%
Vol. 24h $70K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027: 25%
Vol. 24h $69.1K · Cierra 1 jul 2027
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate: 61%
Vol. 24h $62.8K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance: 21%
Vol. 24h $62.1K · Cierra 8 nov 2028
Elon Musk # tweets October 20 - October 27, 2026?
240-259: 11%
Vol. 24h $53.5K · Cierra 27 oct 2026
Ohio Senate Election Winner
Sherrod Brown (D): 66%
Vol. 24h $47.1K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
No: 77%
Vol. 24h $45.8K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
No Hormuz Agreement: 96%
Vol. 24h $39.2K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
Yashar: 69%
Vol. 24h $37.8K · Cierra 28 oct 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
No: 99%
Vol. 24h $36.6K · Cierra 1 nov 2026
Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)
December 31: 26%
Vol. 24h $36.6K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Arizona Governor Election Winner
Katie Hobbs (D): 93%
Vol. 24h $36.3K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
20-24: 42%
Vol. 24h $35.7K · Cierra 28 oct 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
Vol. 24h $34.1K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo
Candidate AA: 50%
Vol. 24h $34.1K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Idaho Senate Election Winner
Jim Risch (R): 96%
Vol. 24h $30.3K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Aleksandar Vučić: 67%
Vol. 24h $29.9K · Cierra 26 oct 2026
Nevada Governor Election Winner
Aaron Ford (D): 53%
Vol. 24h $29.6K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Argentina Presidential Election Winner
Javier Milei: 48%
Vol. 24h $29.4K · Cierra 25 oct 2027