Mercados de predicción de Política
Elecciones, legislación y eventos políticos valorados por la multitud.
Datos de Polymarket, actualizados ….
Solo informativo. No es asesoramiento financiero ni de apuestas. Las probabilidades reflejan precios de mercado, no certezas.
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 15: 97%
Vol. 24h $882.3K · Cierra 31 oct 2026
US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?
October 15: 99%
Vol. 24h $718.4K · Cierra 31 oct 2026
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 18%
Vol. 24h $685.1K · Cierra 8 nov 2028
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 86%
Vol. 24h $482.4K · Cierra 26 oct 2026
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 27%
Vol. 24h $465.6K · Cierra 1 ene 2029
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 43%
Vol. 24h $431.2K · Cierra 19 abr 2027
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 10%
Vol. 24h $410.2K · Cierra 1 jul 2027
Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?
240-259: 28%
Vol. 24h $409.2K · Cierra 16 oct 2026
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep: 62%
Vol. 24h $370.2K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31: 4%
Vol. 24h $322.5K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
Vol. 24h $296.7K · Cierra 26 oct 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 67%
Vol. 24h $278.7K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
Oil ≥ $85; D Senate: 52%
Vol. 24h $193.5K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 12 - October 14, 2026?
65-89: 65%
Vol. 24h $186K · Cierra 14 oct 2026
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
No Hormuz Agreement: 89%
Vol. 24h $181.6K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party: 91%
Vol. 24h $172K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. Vance: 49%
Vol. 24h $162.1K · Cierra 8 nov 2028
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 83%
Vol. 24h $159.2K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 48%
Vol. 24h $158.7K · Cierra 28 oct 2026
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance: 22%
Vol. 24h $154.7K · Cierra 8 nov 2028
Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 22%
Vol. 24h $146.4K · Cierra 1 ene 2029
Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?
Oil ≥ $80; D Senate: 55%
Vol. 24h $140.4K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
4.25%: 66%
Vol. 24h $131.8K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 87%
Vol. 24h $107.7K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?
220-239: 17%
Vol. 24h $103K · Cierra 20 oct 2026
Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D): 65%
Vol. 24h $98.4K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
Vol. 24h $86.5K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Aleksandar Vučić: 71%
Vol. 24h $81.5K · Cierra 26 oct 2026
Ohio Governor Election Winner
Amy Acton (D): 72%
Vol. 24h $78.7K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Luca Niculescu: 75%
Vol. 24h $75.3K · Cierra 1 ene 2028
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
No: 99%
Vol. 24h $75K · Cierra 1 nov 2026
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate: 62%
Vol. 24h $71.9K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
Yes: 78%
Vol. 24h $60.3K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?
December 31: 30%
Vol. 24h $59.2K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Next Prime Minister of Spain?
Alberto Núñez Feijóo: 82%
Vol. 24h $58.6K · Cierra 1 abr 2028
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party: 64%
Vol. 24h $55.8K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
No Hormuz Agreement: 84%
Vol. 24h $51.4K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 2027: 69%
Vol. 24h $50.9K · Cierra 1 jul 2027
Next leader out of power before 2027?
None before 2027: 41%
Vol. 24h $49.1K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo
Candidate U: 50%
Vol. 24h $47.5K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Saudi airspace closed by...?
December 31: 19%
Vol. 24h $43.2K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra: 96%
Vol. 24h $35.8K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Iowa Governor Election Winner
Rob Sand (D): 91%
Vol. 24h $35.8K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027: 21%
Vol. 24h $35.6K · Cierra 1 jul 2027
Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia: 63%
Vol. 24h $34.9K · Cierra 25 oct 2026
What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?
Pipeline: 96%
Vol. 24h $33.7K · Cierra 13 oct 2026
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?
No: 88%
Vol. 24h $31.9K · Cierra 1 nov 2026
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro: 71%
Vol. 24h $30.8K · Cierra 1 ene 2027