Mercados de predicción de Política
Elecciones, legislación y eventos políticos valorados por la multitud.
Datos de Polymarket, actualizados ….
Solo informativo. No es asesoramiento financiero ni de apuestas. Las probabilidades reflejan precios de mercado, no certezas.
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 86%
Vol. 24h $806.9K · Cierra 26 oct 2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 15: 98%
Vol. 24h $794.8K · Cierra 31 oct 2026
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 45%
Vol. 24h $559.2K · Cierra 19 abr 2027
Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?
260-279: 29%
Vol. 24h $529.8K · Cierra 16 oct 2026
US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?
October 15: 99%
Vol. 24h $517.6K · Cierra 31 oct 2026
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 27%
Vol. 24h $467.7K · Cierra 1 ene 2029
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep: 62%
Vol. 24h $417K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 66%
Vol. 24h $377.8K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Elon Musk # tweets October 12 - October 14, 2026?
90-114: 95%
Vol. 24h $376.4K · Cierra 14 oct 2026
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 18%
Vol. 24h $346.9K · Cierra 8 nov 2028
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party: 91%
Vol. 24h $319.9K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
No Hormuz Agreement: 91%
Vol. 24h $288K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
Vol. 24h $256.6K · Cierra 26 oct 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 10%
Vol. 24h $225K · Cierra 1 jul 2027
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance: 22%
Vol. 24h $202.4K · Cierra 8 nov 2028
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31: 5%
Vol. 24h $192K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. Vance: 49%
Vol. 24h $165.8K · Cierra 8 nov 2028
Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?
240-259: 14%
Vol. 24h $150.2K · Cierra 20 oct 2026
Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 21%
Vol. 24h $146.6K · Cierra 1 ene 2029
Taipei Mayor Election Winner
Chiang Wan-an: 66%
Vol. 24h $143.8K · Cierra 29 nov 2026
Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
Oil ≥ $85; D Senate: 52%
Vol. 24h $143.7K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
No: 99%
Vol. 24h $123K · Cierra 1 nov 2026
Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D): 64%
Vol. 24h $122.3K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?
December 31: 31%
Vol. 24h $122.2K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 87%
Vol. 24h $120.2K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Alaska Governor Election Winner
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 76%
Vol. 24h $105.6K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 83%
Vol. 24h $100.8K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 48%
Vol. 24h $94.9K · Cierra 28 oct 2026
Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Luca Niculescu: 83%
Vol. 24h $84.6K · Cierra 1 ene 2028
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Steve Witkoff: 42%
Vol. 24h $83.4K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Ohio Governor Election Winner
Amy Acton (D): 72%
Vol. 24h $80.4K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party: 64%
Vol. 24h $76.4K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Next leader out of power before 2027?
None before 2027: 43%
Vol. 24h $74.7K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
Vol. 24h $72K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Iowa Governor Election Winner
Rob Sand (D): 91%
Vol. 24h $67.1K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
Yes: 78%
Vol. 24h $67K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Aleksandar Vučić: 71%
Vol. 24h $66.1K · Cierra 26 oct 2026
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
4.25%: 62%
Vol. 24h $63.7K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?
December 31: 36%
Vol. 24h $62.7K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Saudi airspace closed by...?
December 31: 23%
Vol. 24h $58.4K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra: 96%
Vol. 24h $50.3K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo
Candidate U: 50%
Vol. 24h $49.5K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Michigan Governor Election Winner
Jocelyn Benson (D): 95%
Vol. 24h $46.8K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Dilution of Iran's Uranium: 16%
Vol. 24h $46.4K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
No Hormuz Agreement: 84%
Vol. 24h $45.2K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31: 17%
Vol. 24h $42.1K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027: 21%
Vol. 24h $40.7K · Cierra 1 jul 2027
Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia: 63%
Vol. 24h $38.1K · Cierra 25 oct 2026