Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?
Mercados
November 30
- Yes66%
- No35%
Volumen $1.6K · Liquidez $879.3
October 31
- Yes59%
- No42%
Volumen $103.8 · Liquidez $672.1
Reglas de resolución
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Moody's Ratings or S&P Global Ratings publishes a rating action lowering its long-term sovereign credit rating for the Republic of France, at any point between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying downgrade by either agency is sufficient for this market to resolve "Yes." A downgrade by both agencies is not required. For purposes of this market, “long-term sovereign credit rating” means any of the following: S&P Global Ratings’ long-term foreign-currency sovereign credit rating or long-term local-currency sovereign credit rating on France; or Moody’s Ratings’ long-term issuer rating or senior unsecured rating on the Government of France. A lowering of any of these qualifies. A change in outlook or CreditWatch/review status alone (for example, a move from Stable to Negative outlook, or placement on review for downgrade), an affirmation of an existing rating, a withdrawal of a rating, or a change to a short-term rating will not qualify. Only a lowering of a long-term sovereign credit rating itself will qualify. Rating actions by any agency other than Moody's Ratings and S&P Global Ratings — including Fitch Ratings, Scope Ratings and DBRS Morningstar — will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be the official rating action publications of Moody's Ratings ( and S&P Global Ratings ( together with the Agence France Trésor published ratings page ( however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Cómo leer estas probabilidades
Cada precio va de 0 a 1 dólar y se puede leer como la probabilidad que el mercado asigna a un resultado: 0,62 $ equivale aproximadamente a un 62 %. Los precios cambian con cada operación, así que son una estimación colectiva, no una garantía. Antes de operar, revisa las reglas de resolución de arriba, el volumen y la liquidez, y arriesga solo dinero que puedas permitirte perder.
Más mercados de Economía

EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026?
30M+: 85%
Vol. 24h $2.7K · Cierra 1 ene 2027

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
No change: 93%
Vol. 24h $9.7K · Cierra 30 oct 2026

Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027?
Yes: 80%
Vol. 24h $1.2K · Cierra 1 jul 2027

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?
25 bps increase: 55%
Vol. 24h $3.6K · Cierra 9 dic 2026

Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase: 75%
Vol. 24h $7.3K · Cierra 10 dic 2026

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes: 78%
Vol. 24h $6K · Cierra 10 dic 2026

UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?
0.4–0.5%: 39%
Vol. 24h $1.3K · Cierra 13 nov 2026

How many jobs added in October?
100k+: 26%
Vol. 24h $7K · Cierra 7 nov 2026

Bank of Mexico Decision in November?
No change: 69%
Vol. 24h $2.8K · Cierra 5 nov 2026

Bank of England decision in November?
25 bps increase: 90%
Vol. 24h $1.1K · Cierra 5 nov 2026

ISM Services PMI - October 2026
53.0 to 53.9: 30%
Vol. 24h $1.4K · Cierra 4 nov 2026

Bank of Brazil decision in November?
25 bps decrease: 87%
Vol. 24h $2.4K · Cierra 4 nov 2026

