Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)
Mercados
Pause-Hike-Pause
- Yes18%
- No83%
Volumen $269.6 · Liquidez $3.9K
Hike-Pause-Pause
- Yes8%
- No93%
Volumen $269.5 · Liquidez $3.6K
Hike-Pause-Hike
- Yes10%
- No90%
Volumen $239 · Liquidez $3.3K
Other
- Yes16%
- No85%
Volumen $229 · Liquidez $3.5K
Pause-Hike-Hike
- Yes13%
- No87%
Volumen $208 · Liquidez $4.1K
Pause-Pause-Pause
- Yes12%
- No88%
Volumen $153 · Liquidez $3.3K
Hike-Hike-Pause
- Yes11%
- No90%
Volumen $146 · Liquidez $4K
Pause-Pause-Hike
- Yes12%
- No89%
Volumen $141 · Liquidez $3.7K
Hike-Hike-Hike
- Yes5%
- No96%
Volumen $129 · Liquidez $3.1K
Reglas de resolución
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
Cómo leer estas probabilidades
Cada precio va de 0 a 1 dólar y se puede leer como la probabilidad que el mercado asigna a un resultado: 0,62 $ equivale aproximadamente a un 62 %. Los precios cambian con cada operación, así que son una estimación colectiva, no una garantía. Antes de operar, revisa las reglas de resolución de arriba, el volumen y la liquidez, y arriesga solo dinero que puedas permitirte perder.
Más mercados de Economía

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Hike–Pause–Hike: 56%
Vol. 24h $15.1K · Cierra 9 dic 2026

Fed Decision in January?
No change: 54%
Vol. 24h $27K · Cierra 28 ene 2027

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps): 97%
Vol. 24h $93.6K · Cierra 1 ene 2027

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.3%: 85%
Vol. 24h $37.6K · Cierra 1 ene 2027

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.7%: 22%
Vol. 24h $1.5K · Cierra 1 ene 2027

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.65%: 73%
Vol. 24h $9.5K · Cierra 31 dic 2026

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.10%: 81%
Vol. 24h $9.4K · Cierra 31 dic 2026

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.50%: 19%
Vol. 24h $4.7K · Cierra 31 dic 2026

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 5.20%: 49%
Vol. 24h $2.7K · Cierra 31 dic 2026

Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase: 71%
Vol. 24h $76.9K · Cierra 10 dic 2026

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes: 81%
Vol. 24h $21.2K · Cierra 10 dic 2026

US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
≥3.0%: 73%
Vol. 24h $694.4 · Cierra 30 oct 2026

