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Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Markets

  • January 31

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $8.4M · Liquidity —

  • March 31

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $2.8M · Liquidity —

  • December 31, 2025

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $2.8M · Liquidity —

  • December 31

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $248K · Liquidity $92.8K

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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