World Prediction Markets
Geopolitics and global events.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 49%
24h vol $1M · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 77%
24h vol $1M · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 46%
24h vol $798.6K · Ends Apr 19, 2027
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $550.9K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31: 36%
24h vol $493.7K · Ends Jan 3, 2027
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 24: 94%
24h vol $420.5K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Iotova 10-20%: 60%
24h vol $215.8K · Ends Oct 25, 2026
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31: 92%
24h vol $150.4K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 84%
24h vol $137.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 10%
24h vol $121.5K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $111.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran coup attempt by...?
December 31, 2027: 25%
24h vol $99.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027
Committee to Protect Journalists: 14%
24h vol $93.3K · Ends Apr 1, 2028
Bulgaria Presidential Election
Iliana Iotova: 89%
24h vol $90.4K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 31: 14%
24h vol $72.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 31, 2027: 53%
24h vol $71.1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 31: 39%
24h vol $60K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei: 86%
24h vol $55.2K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
October 28: 90%
24h vol $42.2K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
No: 97%
24h vol $34.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027: 92%
24h vol $31.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?
October 27: 70%
24h vol $29.3K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 95%
24h vol $28.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
25 bps increase: 66%
24h vol $24.6K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
France declares state of emergency by...?
December 31: 18%
24h vol $23.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
December 31: 33%
24h vol $20.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31: 9%
24h vol $18.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
No: 95%
24h vol $17.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?
25-29: 71%
24h vol $16.6K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Vladimir Putin: 84%
24h vol $16.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
No: 94%
24h vol $15.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
French Presidential Election First Round Winner
Marine Le Pen: 84%
24h vol $13.4K · Ends Apr 18, 2027
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
June 30, 2027: 9%
24h vol $12.7K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Next Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena Andersson: 77%
24h vol $12.6K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Specific Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $11.8K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Next Israeli Minister of Defense?
Person M: 50%
24h vol $11.5K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
December 31, 2027: 40%
24h vol $10.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
October 16: 88%
24h vol $10.3K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Bank of Japan Decision in October?
No change: 98%
24h vol $10.1K · Ends Oct 30, 2026
Spain General Election Winner
PP: 85%
24h vol $9.6K · Ends Nov 30, 2026
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 31: 14%
24h vol $8.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
China: 80%
24h vol $7.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Yes: 85%
24h vol $7.7K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
Person X: 50%
24h vol $6.2K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Next Israeli Minister of Justice?
Person Y: 50%
24h vol $5.6K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?
December 31: 3%
24h vol $4.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?
25 bps increase: 82%
24h vol $4.4K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government?
Gadi Eizenkot: 56%
24h vol $4.1K · Ends Oct 28, 2026