World Prediction Markets
Geopolitics and global events.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 75%
24h vol $1.1M · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 49%
24h vol $1M · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 46%
24h vol $812.3K · Ends Apr 19, 2027
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31: 36%
24h vol $471.3K · Ends Jan 3, 2027
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 24: 91%
24h vol $421.9K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $402K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Iotova 10-20%: 66%
24h vol $221.3K · Ends Oct 25, 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 84%
24h vol $136.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31: 92%
24h vol $123.8K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 10%
24h vol $112.6K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $107.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027
Donald Trump: 9%
24h vol $98.5K · Ends Apr 1, 2028
Bulgaria Presidential Election
Iliana Iotova: 88%
24h vol $88.6K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Iran coup attempt by...?
December 31, 2027: 27%
24h vol $73.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 31: 14%
24h vol $72.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei: 86%
24h vol $69.1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
France declares state of emergency by...?
December 31: 19%
24h vol $44.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 31, 2027: 50%
24h vol $44K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
December 31: 31%
24h vol $42.5K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
No: 97%
24h vol $41.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 95%
24h vol $35K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?
October 24: 75%
24h vol $31.9K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027: 92%
24h vol $31.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
October 24: 92%
24h vol $29.5K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 31: 40%
24h vol $28.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
October 21: 84%
24h vol $27.8K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Houthi military action against Israel by...?
December 31: 24%
24h vol $27.1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
25 bps increase: 66%
24h vol $24.8K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
No: 95%
24h vol $21.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
No: 94%
24h vol $18.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
December 31: 33%
24h vol $18.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31: 9%
24h vol $17.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Vladimir Putin: 84%
24h vol $17.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Next Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena Andersson: 77%
24h vol $17.1K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?
25-29: 71%
24h vol $16.6K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
June 30, 2027: 9%
24h vol $15.2K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Next Israeli Minister of Defense?
Person Z: 50%
24h vol $13.6K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
French Presidential Election First Round Winner
Marine Le Pen: 84%
24h vol $13.4K · Ends Apr 18, 2027
Spain General Election Winner
PP: 85%
24h vol $9.6K · Ends Nov 30, 2026
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Specific Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $9.5K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Next Israeli Minister of Justice?
Person R: 50%
24h vol $8.4K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
Person L: 50%
24h vol $8K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
US military action against Cuba by...?
No: 92%
24h vol $7.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Yes: 85%
24h vol $7.8K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Bank of Japan Decision in October?
No change: 97%
24h vol $6.2K · Ends Oct 30, 2026
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
China: 79%
24h vol $6.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?
No: 91%
24h vol $6K · Ends Dec 1, 2026
France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?
December 31: 3%
24h vol $5.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027