World Prediction Markets
Geopolitics and global events.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 77%
24h vol $1.1M · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 49%
24h vol $1M · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 46%
24h vol $797.9K · Ends Apr 19, 2027
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31: 35%
24h vol $569.9K · Ends Jan 3, 2027
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $561.6K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31: 97%
24h vol $392.2K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 24: 95%
24h vol $334.7K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 10%
24h vol $179.6K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Iotova 10-20%: 62%
24h vol $164.9K · Ends Oct 25, 2026
Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 31: 40%
24h vol $133.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Bulgaria Presidential Election
Iliana Iotova: 88%
24h vol $116.4K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027
Donald Trump: 9%
24h vol $94.2K · Ends Apr 1, 2028
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 31, 2027: 53%
24h vol $90.9K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 84%
24h vol $83.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 31: 14%
24h vol $78.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $67.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 95%
24h vol $57K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Iran coup attempt by...?
December 31, 2027: 27%
24h vol $54K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
No: 97%
24h vol $41.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
October 23: 90%
24h vol $38.4K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Spain General Election Winner
PP: 75%
24h vol $30.6K · Ends Nov 30, 2026
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
December 31: 34%
24h vol $28.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027: 93%
24h vol $28.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31: 9%
24h vol $23.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
June 30, 2027: 9%
24h vol $21.5K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Specific Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $18.7K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Vladimir Putin: 84%
24h vol $18.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?
25-29: 71%
24h vol $16.6K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei: 85%
24h vol $16.3K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
No: 95%
24h vol $15.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
December 31, 2027: 40%
24h vol $14.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
No: 94%
24h vol $13.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Next Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena Andersson: 77%
24h vol $13K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
French Presidential Election First Round Winner
Marine Le Pen: 84%
24h vol $12.9K · Ends Apr 18, 2027
Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
Person X: 50%
24h vol $12.8K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Next Israeli Minister of Justice?
Person W: 50%
24h vol $12.8K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
Next Israeli Minister of Defense?
Person P: 50%
24h vol $11.6K · Ends Mar 1, 2027
France declares state of emergency by...?
December 31: 18%
24h vol $11.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
October 16: 87%
24h vol $10.4K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Bank of Japan Decision in October?
No change: 98%
24h vol $9.4K · Ends Oct 30, 2026
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
China: 79%
24h vol $6.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?
No: 81%
24h vol $6.2K · Ends Dec 1, 2026
France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?
December 31: 3%
24h vol $6.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government?
Gadi Eizenkot: 61%
24h vol $5.8K · Ends Oct 28, 2026
Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?
Yes: 87%
24h vol $5.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
25 bps increase: 67%
24h vol $4.8K · Ends Nov 4, 2026
Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?
UAE: 72%
24h vol $4.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
No: 91%
24h vol $4.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2028