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Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Markets

  • June 30

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $3.5M · Liquidity —

  • July 31

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $2.2M · Liquidity —

  • May 31

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $1.5M · Liquidity —

  • August 31

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $669.3K · Liquidity —

  • September 30

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $295.1K · Liquidity —

  • December 31

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $239.8K · Liquidity $43.6K

  • April 30

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $75K · Liquidity —

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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