Tech Prediction Markets
AI, product launches and big-tech milestones.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?
December 31, 2029: 20%
24h vol $151K · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIA: 73%
24h vol $110.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
Google: 81%
24h vol $92.4K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Anthropic: 48%
24h vol $85.5K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
December 31: 97%
24h vol $67.5K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Largest Company end of October 2026?
NVIDIA: 92%
24h vol $58.3K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
December 31, 2027: 71%
24h vol $43.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
No release by October 31: 29%
24h vol $31.1K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Which company has the best AI model end of November?
Google: 54%
24h vol $21.2K · Ends Dec 1, 2026
FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?
December 31, 2027: 64%
24h vol $18.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
0: 77%
24h vol $16.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?
December 31: 84%
24h vol $12.3K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
#3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 19?
Google: 54%
24h vol $9.7K · Ends Oct 27, 2026
Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 33%
24h vol $9.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2029
3rd Largest Company end of October?
Alphabet: 73%
24h vol $9K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...?
June 30, 2027?: 86%
24h vol $8.9K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?
1400+: 94%
24h vol $8.2K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
Company D: 50%
24h vol $7.5K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
1470+: 26%
24h vol $7.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
Xiaomi: 67%
24h vol $7K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
#2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 19?
AI lab F: 50%
24h vol $7K · Ends Oct 27, 2026
NuScale announces bankruptcy by...?
December 31, 2029: 28%
24h vol $6.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 28%
24h vol $5.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 31%
24h vol $5.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?
$900B-$1.00T: 41%
24h vol $5.3K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
GPT Astra 6.1+: Text Arena Debut?
1430+: 80%
24h vol $5.3K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
OpenRouter AI token usage Sep 28 to Oct 25?
675-725T: 92%
24h vol $5.1K · Ends Oct 26, 2026
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by...?
October 31: 100%
24h vol $5.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?
Apple: 89%
24h vol $4.9K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 26%
24h vol $4.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2029
North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 28%
24h vol $4.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2029
3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?
Company B: 50%
24h vol $4.4K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
CoreWeave announces bankruptcy by...?
December 31, 2029: 25%
24h vol $4.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?
December 31: 11%
24h vol $4K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?
Saudi Arabia: 28%
24h vol $3.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut?
1500+: 95%
24h vol $3.8K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
December 31, 2027: 51%
24h vol $3.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?
November 30, 2026: 73%
24h vol $3.6K · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Highest Kimi score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
45%+: 73%
24h vol $3.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Which company has the best Image Edit AI end of November?
OpenAI: 70%
24h vol $3.2K · Ends Dec 1, 2026
Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of November?
Anthropic: 80%
24h vol $3.1K · Ends Dec 1, 2026
Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
No solution by Dec 31, 2027: 36%
24h vol $3.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
No IPO by December 31, 2027: 48%
24h vol $3K · Ends Jan 1, 2028
AI bubble burst by...?
June 30, 2027: 20%
24h vol $2.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?
Anthropic: 77%
24h vol $2.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Third-best AI Agent Lab end of October?
Google: 63%
24h vol $2.9K · Ends Oct 31, 2026
Will Marvell Q3 Data Center revenue be above __?
$2.5B: 91%
24h vol $2.9K · Ends Dec 1, 2026
Will Claude go down on __ days in October?
<5: 74%
24h vol $2.8K · Ends Nov 1, 2026