US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
Markets
August 31
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $241.4K · Liquidity —
July 31
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $88.9K · Liquidity —
September 30
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $56K · Liquidity —
October 31
- Yes14%
- No87%
Volume $23.9K · Liquidity $19.1K
Resolution rules
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part. Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify. Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify. Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
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