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Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

Markets

  • David Lisnard

    • Yes13%
    • No87%

    Volume $81K · Liquidity $100K

  • Jordan Bardella

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $23.5K · Liquidity $24.7K

  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon

    • Yes42%
    • No59%

    Volume $16.5K · Liquidity $33.5K

  • Marine Le Pen

    • Yes91%
    • No9%

    Volume $15.6K · Liquidity $44.1K

  • François Hollande

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $12.4K · Liquidity $53.3K

  • Fabien Roussel

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $6.4K · Liquidity $26.2K

  • Manuel Bompard

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $5.9K · Liquidity $31.8K

  • Raphaël Glucksmann

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $5.7K · Liquidity $28.1K

  • Bernard Cazeneuve

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $5.6K · Liquidity $24.8K

  • François Ruffin

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $4.9K · Liquidity $21.3K

  • Sarah Knafo

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $4.8K · Liquidity $21.8K

  • Clémentine Autain

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $4.5K · Liquidity $21.4K

  • Élisabeth Borne

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $4.3K · Liquidity $31.7K

  • Carole Delga

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $4.3K · Liquidity $25.8K

  • Gabriel Attal

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $4K · Liquidity $32.6K

  • Ségolène Royal

    • Yes4%
    • No97%

    Volume $3.9K · Liquidity $19.1K

  • Édouard Philippe

    • Yes43%
    • No57%

    Volume $3.8K · Liquidity $31.1K

  • Juan Branco

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $3.5K · Liquidity $40.1K

  • Yaël Braun-Pivet

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $3.2K · Liquidity $21.5K

  • Marine Tondelier

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $3.1K · Liquidity $15.8K

  • Bruno Retailleau

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $2.5K · Liquidity $22K

  • Michel Barnier

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $2.3K · Liquidity $25.3K

  • François Bayrou

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $2.3K · Liquidity $36.4K

  • Clémence Guetté

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $2.2K · Liquidity $18K

  • Sébastien Lecornu

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $2.1K · Liquidity $25K

  • Gérald Darmanin

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $2.1K · Liquidity $22.7K

  • François Asselineau

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $1.8K · Liquidity $27K

  • Mathilde Panot

    • Yes2%
    • No99%

    Volume $1.8K · Liquidity $18.4K

  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $1.8K · Liquidity $27.7K

  • Olivier Faure

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $1.8K · Liquidity $31.8K

  • Valérie Pécresse

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $1.6K · Liquidity $15.9K

  • Xavier Bertrand

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $1.5K · Liquidity $17.7K

  • Dominique de Villepin

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $1.5K · Liquidity $24.9K

  • Jean Castex

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $1.3K · Liquidity $15.8K

  • Laurent Wauquiez

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $920.7 · Liquidity $16.8K

  • Éric Zemmour

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $731.3 · Liquidity $29.5K

  • Other

    • Yes33%
    • No68%

    Volume $111.6 · Liquidity $1.2K

Resolution rules

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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