Which companies will the US take a stake in?
Markets
Anduril
- Yes19%
- No81%
Volume $45.9K · Liquidity $341.8
Rigetti
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $27.8K · Liquidity —
Nvidia
- Yes10%
- No90%
Volume $17.2K · Liquidity $697
TSMC
- Yes14%
- No87%
Volume $16.3K · Liquidity $257.8
Boeing
- Yes6%
- No95%
Volume $11.7K · Liquidity $313.3
OpenAI
- Yes14%
- No87%
Volume $11.6K · Liquidity $303.3
Samsung Electronics
- Yes4%
- No96%
Volume $10.4K · Liquidity $374.9
GlobalFoundries
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $10.2K · Liquidity —
Anthropic
- Yes14%
- No87%
Volume $7.3K · Liquidity $2.6K
Pfizer
- Yes6%
- No94%
Volume $6.8K · Liquidity $564.3
TikTok US / Bytedance
- Yes4%
- No96%
Volume $6.5K · Liquidity $290.1
D-Wave
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $5.7K · Liquidity —
Palantir
- Yes6%
- No94%
Volume $4.8K · Liquidity $262.4
Eli Lilly
- Yes7%
- No93%
Volume $3.6K · Liquidity $365.9
IonQ
- Yes9%
- No92%
Volume $3.6K · Liquidity $340.6
Lockheed Martin
- Yes7%
- No93%
Volume $3.5K · Liquidity $545.2
Freeport-McMoRan
- Yes7%
- No93%
Volume $3.5K · Liquidity $320.4
Micron
- Yes10%
- No90%
Volume $2.7K · Liquidity $472
Unusual Machines
- Yes53%
- No48%
Volume $755.1 · Liquidity $416.6
SpaceX
- Yes5%
- No95%
Volume $147.1 · Liquidity $94.8
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify. An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements which do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
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