A presidential survey tells you which candidate voters prefer today. A prediction market tells you how likely that candidate is to win. Both are useful, and they are easy to confuse.
What Pulse Asia, SWS and OCTA measure
Pulse Asia, Social Weather Stations (SWS) and OCTA Research run face-to-face surveys of voter preference and trust ratings. To read a presidential or senatorial survey well:
- Check the fieldwork dates. A survey describes the days it was in the field, not the day it was published.
- Mind the margin of error. A 2-point gap between two candidates may not be real.
- Senate surveys work differently. Voters pick up to twelve names, so shares add up to far more than 100% and what matters is who is inside the top twelve.
- Look at the trend across several survey rounds.
What a prediction market measures
On a prediction market, a YES share pays $1.00 if the candidate wins and $0 if not. A price of 60¢ is an implied probability of about 60%. The price changes with every trade.
| Survey | Prediction market | |
|---|---|---|
| Reports | Voter preference | Probability of winning |
| Updates | Each survey round | Continuously |
| Who speaks | A sample of voters | People risking money |
| Weakness | Sampling, timing | Thin liquidity, large traders |
One round, no runoff
The president is elected for a single six-year term by plurality: whoever gets the most votes wins, with no runoff. That makes the survey leader's position stronger than in a two-round system, since they don't need a majority.
It still isn't a one-to-one translation. A candidate with 45% in a five-way race is a heavy favourite, perhaps 85% likely to win. A candidate with 35% and a rival at 32% is close to a coin flip. The survey gives the shares; the market converts the gap and the uncertainty into a probability.
The next election
Presidential elections fall every six years on the second Monday of May, so the next one is on 8 May 2028. Markets on distant elections tend to have low volume and wide spreads, and prices this far out say more about name recognition than about the eventual result.
Using both sources
- Follow survey trends rather than a single release.
- Read the market's exact question and resolution rules.
- Check volume and spread before trusting a price.
- Remember that 70% fails three times in ten.
Access and risk
The Philippines is not on Polymarket's geoblock list (checked 30/09/2026). That tells you where Polymarket allows trading, not whether it is legal for you; local law decides that. See Philippines. Every position can lose its full value.